East coast troughs and tropical systems in South Central Caribbean
Posted by canetrakker on 9/27/2016, 1:32 pm
It's way too early to know for sure what will happen 97L entering the Caribbean Sea soon. How strong versus how weak will it eventually become will have a lot to do with its eventual steering. Placements of troughs on the East Coast and building or eroding of the Bermuda Azores high of course also play a big role as to where the system tracks. The GFS and it's ensembles call for a sharp right turn somewhere south of Hispaniola. The trough currently digging into the East certainly does not have what it takes to cause that kind of a turn in the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola. Model runs have been showing the center of trough only digging as far south as Tennessee/West Virginia with the southern axis in Georgia before weakening and lifting north almost as soon as its gets there while the system is still in the south central Caribbean. This is not the type of deep trough needed to pull a storm out of the south-central Caribbean Sea. Below is a graphic of the type a trough that would more likely lift a system out of that area in the Caribbean and below that will be the current feature that is supposed to do this. Just my humble opinion on that. Might be the sharp right turn is more due to the erosion of the Bermuda Azores high.. I don't see that sharp turn being caused by that particular trough alone. In the graphic below the trough is already lifting even before what then should be Matthew begins its sharp right. As I was writing this the GFS has been trending ever so slightly west in the last few runs. I would expect further model runs of the GFS to continue to trend westward.











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East coast troughs and tropical systems in South Central Caribbean - canetrakker, 9/27/2016, 1:32 pm
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