Re: Lets Here some Predictions, Don't be scared
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/29/2016, 6:29 pm
Convection is starting to be able to wrap around the southern side, so shear seems to be letting up a bit at least at the moment. The G-IV will be sampling north and around the storm, although I wish there was more sampling further to the W and NW as well. I wish the NASA Global Hawk was still in its research period. It flew home to California yesterday.

I think a better organized storm and better data for the models will help with the track and intensity forecast. Until we have that G-IV data in the models, I think the kind of right turn, when and how sharp it might be, is still more uncertain.

I would lean west of the current forecast track later on until I see it slow and start to make a turn. (Jamaica could certainly see the stronger side.) I have no idea about later on, though even a small delay in the turn in the Caribbean could increase the risk to the U.S. Atlantic coast.
306
In this thread:
Lets Here some Predictions, Don't be scared - MarkoNY, 9/29/2016, 4:15 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.