2am AST Friday Special Advisory: 100mph; intensity forecast upgraded, no track changes
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/30/2016, 2:03 am
Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/060014.shtml?5day#contents

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/14L_floater.html




HURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the scheduled
intermediate advisory due to the rapid strengthening of Matthew
during the past few hours.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft reported flight-level winds of 99 kt in the northern
eyewall at 700 mb, along with surface wind estimates of 80-85 kt
from the SFMR instrument.  In addition, the central pressure has
fallen to 979 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 85 kt.  This also requires significant changes to the
intensity forecast, which now calls for Matthew to reach major
hurricane status in 24 hours and maintain it through 96 hours.  It
is unclear how long the rapid strengthening will continue, and the
revised forecast could be conservative.

There are no changes to the forecast track from the previous
regular advisory.

It should be noted that despite the rapid intensification, the
aircraft data, along with recent scatterometer data, show that the
tropical-storm-force winds still extend only a short distance
over the southern semicircle.  Based on this, no warnings are
required for Aruba, Curacao, or Colombia at this time.  A warning
might be necessary if the southern radii expand or if the center
moves to the south of the forecast track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0600Z 14.1N  69.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 14.0N  70.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  01/0000Z 13.9N  72.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  01/1200Z 13.8N  73.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
48H  02/0000Z 14.1N  74.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  03/0000Z 16.4N  75.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  04/0000Z 19.7N  75.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 23.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven




HURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016

...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 69.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM N OF CURACAO
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Bonaire.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Curacao and Aruba
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
should monitor the progress of Matthew.  Interests in Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 69.3 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next
day or two.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours, and Matthew could become a major hurricane
later today or tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is 979
mb (28.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in Curacao and Aruba
this morning.  Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions
of the watch area in Colombia beginning later today.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
125
In this thread:
2am AST Friday Special Advisory: 100mph; intensity forecast upgraded, no track changes - Chris in Tampa, 9/30/2016, 2:03 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.