Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145010.shtml?5day#contents
Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/14L_floater.html
HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016
Matthew has continued to intensify this morning. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a peak SFMR wind
of 99 kt and a 700-mb wind of 103 kt. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is set to 100 kt for this advisory. The aircraft
reported that the central pressure had fallen to 968 mb, and also
observed a 16 n mi wide eye that is open to the southwest. Water
vapor imagery shows a well-established poleward outflow channel,
with outflow also expanding in the southwest quadrant.
This intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly
shear of around 20 kt. The SHIPS model output shows this shear
continuing for the next 36 hours or so, and as a result, the SHIPS
and LGEM models show Matthew weakening during this time. This
weakening trend is also shown by the HWRF and COAMPS-TC hurricane
models. However, I am reluctant to show a decrease in intensity
given that the environment around the cyclone does not appear to
change much. Some short-term fluctuations in intensity are
certainly possible, but the official forecast remains above much of
the guidance in the short range and keeps the intensity at 100 kt
through 72 hours. Some weakening is shown by days 4 and 5 due to
potential land interaction. Late in the period the NHC forecast is
closest to the HWRF model.
Matthew has been moving west-southwestward during the past few
hours, with an initial motion estimate of 255/10. The cyclone
should continue moving south of due west for the next 12 hours to
the south of a mid-level ridge nosing into the northern Caribbean
Sea. After that, Matthew should gradually turn poleward as the
ridge retreats eastward and a trough moves into the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance,
both along and across track. The ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and
the UKMET are slower and on the right side of the guidance envelope
at 48 hours and beyond. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, HWRF, and
COAMPS-TC are faster and farther to the left. The new NHC track
forecast has been adjusted a little to the south in the first 36
hours due to the initial motion, and lies a little south of the
consensus and close to the GFS at this time range. Beyond that
time, the official forecast is an update of the previous one and
lies a little to the east of the latest multi-model consensus and a
bit to the west of the GFS/ECMWF blend.
It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 13.7N 70.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 13.5N 71.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 13.5N 73.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 13.8N 74.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.7N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.5N 76.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 25.5N 75.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016
...MATTHEW STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE MOVING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 70.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Colombia has changed the Tropical Storm Watch
that was in effect from the Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha
to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The government of Aruba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Aruba.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 to 24 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia
should monitor the progress of Matthew. Interests in Jamaica,
Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew. A hurricane watch may be required for Jamaica later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 70.8 West. Matthew is
moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward
motion at a slower forward speed is expected later today and
tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday
night, followed by a turn toward the northwest by early Sunday. On
the forecast track, the center of Matthew will pass north of the
Guajira Peninsula later today and tonight and remain over the
central Caribbean Sea through early Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is
forecast during the next 48 hours.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in Colombia later later today and tonight.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao,
Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan |