Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205640.shtml?5day#contents
Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/14L_floater.html
HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016
Matthew has continued to rapidly strengthen at a remarkable rate
today. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a peak
SFMR wind of 116 kt and flight-level winds of 121 kt. A recent
dropsonde from the aircraft indicated that surface winds are around
120 kt. Based on all of these data, the initial intensity is set to
120 kt, an increase of 55 kt in the last 24 hours. The latest
pressure estimate from the aircraft is 949 mb, a drop of 44 mb since
this time yesterday.
Some additional strengthening is possible in the next 12 hours or
so, and the NHC forecast reflects that possibility, showing 125 kt
at that time. Given the lack of skill of the intensity guidance
thus far, this remains a low confidence forecast, and its possible
this could be conservative. Since Matthew has now become a major
hurricane, eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would lead to
some fluctuations in intensity not shown here. After 12 hours, a
gradual weakening is shown, following the trend of, but above nearly
all of the intensity guidance. Land interaction with Cuba should
lead to additional weakening by day 4, but Matthew is expected to
remain a strong hurricane through the forecast period.
The initial motion is still toward the west-southwest, but the
forward speed has slowed a bit, to around 8 kt. The track forecast
reasoning has not changed, with Matthew expected to turn westward by
12 hours and then gradually turn toward the north in the next 3 to 4
days as the cyclone moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
The track model guidance is in slightly better agreement this cycle
through 3 days, although the ECMWF remains right of and slower than
the rest of the guidance at days 4 and 5. The GFS, HWRF, and
COAMPS-TC are faster and to the left late in the period, although
the GFS has trended slower this cycle. The new NHC track has again
been adjusted a little to the left through 72 hours given the
initial position and motion, and after that time is along the
previous official forecast but slower, following the slower trend in
the guidance this cycle. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and is a little to the east of the multi-model
consensus at days 4 and 5.
It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 13.5N 71.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 13.3N 72.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 13.5N 73.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 14.1N 74.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 15.2N 75.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 18.2N 76.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 25.0N 76.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brennan
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016
...MATTHEW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 71.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF PUNTA GALLINAS COLOMBIA
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southwestern coast
of Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to Riohacha
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-Au-Prince
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the
next 12 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 71.6 West. Matthew is moving
toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion
at a slower forward speed is expected tonight and Saturday. A turn
toward the west-northwest is forecast by Saturday night, followed by
a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of Matthew will move north of the Guajira Peninsula this
tonight, move across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and be
near Jamaica on Sunday.
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is
possible tonight, and some fluctuations in intensity are possible
Saturday and Sunday. Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through Sunday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
aircraft is 949 mb (28.03 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area in Colombia through tonight. Hurricane conditions are
possible on Jamaica on Monday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area in Haiti by late Sunday.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through
Saturday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan
border to Riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated
higher amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from Coro
to the Colombian border.
Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, and Colombia during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan |