Re: it's even baffling the experts
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/1/2016, 7:05 pm
I've been wondering if the storm, after it pulls away from South America, might increase greatly in size, at least the core.

As of 5pm EDT:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
EYE DIAMETER   5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......180NE  60SE  60SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Last forecast available for 64 knot wind field (later positions never give that):

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.1N  74.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.

Forecast to grow the 64 knot wind field some, but I wonder if it might grow a lot more. Will it try to hold around its current strength, grow or both? And not only talking about Haiti and Jamaica in the Carib either. I wonder about later on when it could possibly impact some part of the U.S. coast.

From the 5pm discussion:

"The wind field has contracted
today, and the radius of maximum winds is now about 6 n mi."

The eye earlier was 6 nautical miles wide, so you are talking about the core of strongest winds being about 3 nautical miles wide. It's hard for the plane to even sample those winds. Air Force does a quick straight line across the storm. The NOAA research missions purposefully fly around a lot near the core in the past few days.
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Why is Matthew structured like this? It has two - close - heavy circles of storms... - AquaRN, 9/30/2016, 7:31 pm
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