Matthew Analysis
Posted by Jake on 10/2/2016, 3:05 am
Matthew's gradually becoming more symmetrical late this evening. The could pattern is well defined with strong convection bands and a well structured CDO. The eye is surrounded by a strong ring of deep cold cloud tops. In addition, outflow is improving in all quads which is a sign of decreased shear. Further strengthening should resume today as the center moves over higher OHC.

The center is moving more WNW or 280-290 deg and now lies to left of the NHC track. Further analysis of the surrounding synoptic features indicates that the mid level ridge is quite strong north of the greater Antilles as CMISS shows the ridge through all levels or 850-250mb / 940mb pressure, as seen on water vapor images the building ridge is clearly pushing west . This will block Matthew from moving out or continue North!!!!Furthermore, the upper level low across the Ohio Valley is moving NE and the trough axis will weaken it's southern affects.
00z GFS, Ukmet and Euro turn Matthew NW to NNW once in the southern Bahamas, Think this scenario is the most likely solution per ridge strength and lack of approaching troughs from the west.

Lastly, from it's current location, can't see how this turns North per NHC and a WNW to NW motion should continue moving close to Jamaica and cross eastern Cuba near 77W. Then turning more towards the left across the Bahamas.... Florida and Carolina's could be imapcted later this week!!! Think the center will move across the Central and NW Bahamas and come extremely close to Palm Beach to Ft. Pierce
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Matthew Analysis - Jake, 10/2/2016, 3:05 am
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