Re: Matthew Analysis
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/2/2016, 4:20 am
It definitely has not averaged NNW. I was a little surprised the NHC went with that.
Then again they did say it has "apparently begun a north-northwest track":
"A very convenient SSMIS pass at 0006 UTC was helpful in locating the
eye of Matthew, and after a period of little or no motion, the
hurricane has apparently begun a north-northwest track at about 6
kt."
The model system at HurricaneCity calculates short term movement from raw best track data:
As of 2am EDT:
6 Hour Average Movement:
Toward the WNW or 292° at 5.3 knots (6.1 mph | 9.8 km/h)
12 Hour Average Movement:
Toward the NW or 311° at 3.8 knots (4.4 mph | 7.1 km/h)
24 Hour (1 Day) Average Movement:
Toward the WNW or 286° at 3.6 knots (4.1 mph | 6.6 km/h)
From:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=14
At 11pm the NHC had this in the "Forecast Advisory" :
"PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT"
It's wobbled some, slowing at times. It is probably averaging NW over the most recent twelve hours, up until now. I believe the NHC usually goes with 12 hour movement. It's definitely left of the track at the moment. But then again over the past few frames it looks as though it has almost stalled again.
I really wish we had recon. I am wondering what the extent of the strongest winds are now, in addition to strength.
It would seem like it could continue NW at least for now, but many of the models for whatever reason want to take it north right about now. Hopefully people in both Haiti and Jamaica are preparing, in Haiti for the rain regardless of a direct hit, and Jamaica in case it does continue NW.
Steering for 250-850mb (940-949mb):
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm5&zoom=&time=
Water vapor for Western Atlantic:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/h5-loop-wv.html |
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Matthew Analysis -
Jake,
10/2/2016, 3:05 am Post A Reply
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