Re: My conspiracy theory
Posted by
Gianmarc on 10/2/2016, 11:46 am
All that said, I caution folks against characterizing the present environment as "favorable." The potential for upwelling will always be present with a slow-moving major, and the current depiction of shear from the U of Wis. shows 20 knots of shear directly over the system currently and stronger shear (25-30 kts) just to its north. To NHC's credit, they do show a persistent, if gradual, weakening trend in their intensity forecast.
Shear Map: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom
NHC intensity forecast as of 11 a.m.: FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 14.0N 74.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.9N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.1N 75.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.7N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 19.5N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 23.2N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 26.5N 76.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 29.5N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH |
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My conspiracy theory -
MarkoNY,
10/2/2016, 11:34 am Post A Reply
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