Re: My conspiracy theory
Posted by Gianmarc on 10/2/2016, 11:46 am
All that said, I caution folks against characterizing the present environment as "favorable." The potential for upwelling will always be present with a slow-moving major, and the current depiction of shear from the U of Wis. shows 20 knots of shear directly over the system currently and stronger shear (25-30 kts) just to its north. To NHC's credit, they do show a persistent, if gradual, weakening trend in their intensity forecast.

Shear Map:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom

NHC intensity forecast as of 11 a.m.:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 14.0N  74.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 14.9N  74.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 16.1N  75.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
36H  04/0000Z 17.7N  74.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
48H  04/1200Z 19.5N  74.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  05/1200Z 23.2N  75.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  06/1200Z 26.5N  76.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 29.5N  76.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
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My conspiracy theory - MarkoNY, 10/2/2016, 11:34 am
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