NHC Track Forecast Cone
Posted by cypresstx on 10/2/2016, 11:57 am
it get's old, but it also keeps getting misrepresented online... so here's the link to the full definition, again

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

NOTE

* a wider cone does not mean more uncertainty, it means it traveling slower, therefore 5 days covers less gound

* a narrower cone does not mean less uncertainty, it means it's traveling faster, therefore covering more ground

* the specific width at days 1-5 is predetermined, based on HISTORIC data, not CURRENT storm, so  if it "looks" like it's changing to you, it's an optical illusion or a closer/wider view of the map, or ...


frankly, I wish they would quit using it &/or add/use a graphic showing wind, surge, etc... because it doesn't portray risk very well, imo...  end of rant
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NHC Track Forecast Cone - cypresstx, 10/2/2016, 11:57 am
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