Re: 0Z GFS Model Trends for 18z on the 7th
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/5/2016, 3:57 am
The models are all over the place later on, but early on it is clear that the Bahamas will get hit and the storm will likely somewhat parallel the Florida coast, perhaps making a landfall, perhaps not, but preparations will have to be made either way. Georgia is also threatened, with the Carolinas, especially NC, more of the start of the question mark, as some of the models turn it back before then, but there's more time to prepare up there. Then the big question is whether it comes around again, but if it did, people would already be prepared I guess, though that could mean extended evacuations.

A lot of models do some kind of loop, though a lot offshore. Some models show a turn back but they don't go beyond that. (some models only ever go out around 5 to 7 days)

Not that the following are the best models, some are definitely better than others, but to get a variety here are some preloaded:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2016&storm=14&display=google_map&latestrun=1&models=BAMD,JGS2,OFCI,AEMN,AVNO,CEMN,CMC,COTC,ECMO,GFDL,HWRF,NAM,NVGM,UKM,UKX

For the NHC to pick a 5 day track is a little bit easier than knowing what happens after that, such as Canada or Florida again... or somewhere in between. If you restrict the models above to displaying just 3 days, that is even clearer. I know there is still a spread in the distance from Florida, but with Florida's angle and the storm's angle, that part will likely remain uncertain. It's like Charley in 2004. It looked to come to Tampa but then there was a small change in the track, but due to Florida's angle, west coast in that situation, and the storm's angle, things remained very unclear until the very last moment and it made landfall well south.

3 Day of just a variety of models:



3 day of all available at HC, though 51 0Z Euro ensembles will not be available for another half hour and are not below:


Right four models are either climatology or the simple last 12 hour motion extrapolation, so they can be ignored.

I was going to post some pictures of all the models at longer ranges, but they are just a cluttered mess that is not yet very helpful.
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0Z GFS Made del Trends for 18z on the 7th - tracker, 10/4/2016, 11:54 pm
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