| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/032931.shtml?5day#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/14L_floater.html HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016 ...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 74.6W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM NNW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward to Fernandina Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas * Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island * Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence * North of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet * Lake Okeechobee A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Camaguey * North of Sebastian Inlet to the Fernandina Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti * Turks and Caicos Islands * Chokoloskee to Golden Beach * Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 74.6 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected today, followed by a northwest turn tonight. Matthew will be moving across the Bahamas through Thursday, and is expected to be very near the east coast of Florida by Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue affecting the northwest portion of Haiti this morning. Hurricane conditions are likely occuring over eastern Cuba and portions of the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane conditions are expected to spread over the central Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of Haiti and eastern Cuba this morning. Tropical storm conditions are spreading over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, and should reach the central and northwestern Bahamas later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions should diminish within the warning area in the Dominican Republic this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas in Cuba this morning with tropical storm conditions possible this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions should reach the tropical storm warning area in Florida by early Thursday. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in the following areas: Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25 inches, isolated 40 inches Eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches Eastern Jamaica...additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 12 inches The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Northeastern Haiti and the Northern Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Upper Florida Keys northward to coastal east-central Florida....4 to 7 inches, isolated 10 inches Middle to Lower Florida Keys....1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels... Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet The Bahamas...10 to 15 feet The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line...3 to 5 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Sebastian Inlet. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi |