Re: Evacuate now!
Posted by
Gianmarc on 10/5/2016, 11:29 pm
I do not understand, either.
This is a tricky one. Given the trajectory at which Matt is forecast to approach the east coast of FL, Ft. Lauderdale actually may find itself on the fringe of hurricane-force winds unless the storm's hurricane-force wind field expands beyond its current 25 miles. With the storm looking much healthier on the loops in recent hours, warm waters out ahead of it and a conducive upper-level environment, I think it is entirely likely we will see at least a 130 mph storm impact the east coast of FL, but the forecast track as it stands suggest to me that areas at and north of Melbourne will come closer to the western eyewall than will points south. Melbourne on northward, 130 mph sustained winds suggests 150 mph gusts, which potentially could amount to the greatest wind speeds ever recorded on the coast of north Florida.
That kind of force also would be accompanied by the sort of storm surge one would expect of such a scenario, I would say up to 12 feet with waves at least as high on top of that. Surge should be significant further south in Ft. Lauderdale, so I would say that even though that portion of the coastline seems right now that it will escape the worst of Matt, "little house on the beach" does not seem like a promising setting in which to ride out this situation. If I were you, I would operate under the wise presumption that the best course of action in your shoes is to continue to implore friends and family who plan to ride this out on the beach in Ft. Lauderdale to reconsider, even if you think it's falling on deaf ears. |
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Evacuate now! -
tvsteve,
10/5/2016, 9:11 pm Post A Reply
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