Dvorak Showing Similar Intensification as Last Week (Cat. 5)
Posted by Gambit7 on 10/6/2016, 1:35 am
If you follow Dvorak trending, the storm is already way more powerful than the last advisory.  Worse than that, it's following similar trends as the storm's rapid intensification to Cat 5 last week.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt14L.html



The MIMIC product is also showing a rapid shrinking of the eye down to maybe 1/4 of its earlier size, also more akin to what he did last week. (almost pinhole?)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2016_14L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html


This is definitely a strengthening system.  Cat5 is definitely not out of the question, and I'd put it more like a 30% probability rather than NHC's 10%.  Look for the 2am advisory to reflect this data.

If he winds up before the plunge it'll be a horrible scenario.  Total destruction.  We'd need a well-placed ERC to happen tomorrow afternoon to dodge the proverbial bullet.  As far as I can recall, we've not ever had a pinhole eye make landfall in America in modern history.  <10nm diameter and it'd be considered a pinhole.  Given the impending heat content... I shudder, especially for Nassau.
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Dvorak Showing Similar Intensification as Last Week (Cat. 5) - Gambit7, 10/6/2016, 1:35 am
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