Re: HWRF Model 10/6/16 00UTC, GFS Model 10/6/16 06UTC
Posted by Gianmarc on 10/6/2016, 10:01 am
The intensity forecast has seemed conservative to me for the duration of Matt's life. This system doubled the intensity guidance when it bombed out in the Carib. Now it is sailing slowly over 86-degree waters in a relatively light shear environment after having already demonstrated it has Cat 5 potential.

The best hope now for folks along the north Florida coast is that the core stays offshore, as the radius of maximum winds still appears to be rather confined. The problem is that a deviation to the left of a mere 50 miles could be the difference between Cat 1 and Cat 4 because of the trajectory at which the storm is forecast to approach the coast. That is going to be the most suspenseful aspect of this whole scenario.

Everyone from Ft. Pierce on north who lives on the beach, get out now if you have not already. Don't tempt this one. Hopefully the core stays offshore, but if it does not, you do not want to be caught in this. Not at all.

If a Cat 4 comes ashore on the north Florida coast, I hope people who live there understand that they literally have absolutely no frame of reference for such an event. That has never happened before in recorded meteorological history.
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Matthew at 8am EDT Thursday: 125mph; 940mb; NW at 12 mph - Chris in Tampa, 10/6/2016, 7:50 am
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