Fear the Gulfstream
Posted by Gambit7 on 10/6/2016, 8:56 pm
I don't like the setup of this thing taking the long way across the gulfstream.  It just popped into it now and has a good 12+hrs over one of the highest percal energy sources in the world.  It's slow-moving too... and it's during the night strengthening cycle while he's trying to get re-organized.

I was right about last night's conservative intensity data, and I believe they're making a mistake on it again for tonight.  You can somewhat hear the gears turning in Norcross' voice as he tries to get a handle on the current ERC.

It used to be, all things being stable, that you could count on an extra category once the system hits the stream.  I'd say in this case?  It'll be an upper-end category 4 storm.

Let us hope we do not see explosive development again.  The Gulfstream is an extremely dynamic water-weather region...complete with its own very specific behaviors.  There's a reason it lies within the Bermuda Triangle.  Add a major hurricane??  Anything can happen.

Keep an eye on the Dvorak ensembles for good indicators, as the data won't be great overnight otherwise, nor quick enough coming.
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Fear the Gulfstream - Gambit7, 10/6/2016, 8:56 pm
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