Re: Where the forecast failed
Posted by
AquaRN on 10/10/2016, 4:41 pm
Great discussion Chris, TY.
Yes, many in this area - SE VA ,big metropolitan area - just did not realize the intensity of this storm. Events were not postponed or rescheduled until after the storm hit and all realized it was a 'bad one' with high wind and flooding. It caught a lot of people out and about...realizing too late they were in a mess..hence the hundreds of stranded cars and citizen to citizen rescues. I was told that some 911 areas were swamped with calls.
It apparently caught even the emergency planners off guard as evidenced by the scramble to get shelters open and the Guard onboard AFTER the event. Local cities did not all even have their personnel on standbye...as they would have had with an actual watch. I am not sure how many lost power...but at one time I saw over 250,000 just in SE VA...quite a number.
Dominion VA power posted this about two hours ago (Monday at around 2pm): " We are 80% of the way there! Crews are restoring power to the 106k customers who remain w/o service at about 3,300 work locations.'
Another issue apparently was that a lot of their 'contractors' were sent to parts South, not realizing they would be needed here. Apparently many of them returned late yesterday and today.
Winds gusted in the 70+ mph range which did a number on the already saturated ground and lots of trees - taking lines with them. The State of Emergency too was issued AFTER the fact...too bad as those high clearance Guard vehicles would have been handy in many areas. There were a lot of people caught on the road....hundreds of cars all over the place whereas with a watch/warning most (not all) hunker down.
At first the area was in the 'cone'....and some started to notice and some began steps....but that hard right turn cone lead to a lot of unfortunate complacency. Many seemed to believe the storm would miss VA almost completely....with a few outer rainbands.
Not sure what the answer is...especially when the storm decided to transition so fast.
NC really got nailed too...even above Duck which was the northern limit of the warning. They say that the damage in NC may rivel Floyd.
Without question...this storm was one for the record books and no doubt will be studied for years to come.
I am not blaming anyone...love the NHC and the hard work they do.
This storm definitely should prompt some interesting 'After Action Reports' that could provide a basis for future planning.
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