Re: CMC model
Posted by Beachlover on 10/17/2016, 1:45 am
Clarification:  Orange/Medium chances are at five days; 48 hours chances still Yellow/Low.

Note the graphic I posted immediately above, updating automatically, doesn't seem to match the verbiage in today's 8 p.m. report, which calls for the system to drift "northward or north-northwestward."  Sure looks northeasterly to me on the graphic, but what do I know??

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized showers located over
the Bahamas and adjacent western Atlantic waters is associated with
a surface trough that is interacting with an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions are currently unfavorable for significant
development, but they could become more conducive for tropical or
subtropical cyclone formation Tuesday or Wednesday when the
system begins to drift northward or north-northwestward.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible
over much of the Bahamas during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Brown
185
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CMC model - Alabamaboy, 10/15/2016, 10:55 pm
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