90L: 1pm EST Saturday (11/19): 50% in 48 hours, 70% within 5 days
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 11/19/2016, 1:26 pm
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms have been
persisting near the center of an area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.  In addition, satellite data
suggest that the circulation of the low continues to become better
defined.  Although environmental conditions are only marginally
conducive for additional development, only a small increase in the
organization of the low could result in the formation of a tropical
depression. This low is expected to move slowly and erratically
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi"

From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/90L_floater.html



Recon scheduled for Sunday:



"NOUS42 KNHC 191822
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0120 PM EST SAT 19 NOVEMBER 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
        VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z NOVEMBER 2016
        TCPOD NUMBER.....16-177 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
      FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
      A. 20/1800Z                    A. 21/1130Z
      B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
      C. 20/1315Z                    C. 21/0630Z
      D. 11.0N 80.0W                 D. 11.0N 80.0W
      E. 20/1745Z TO 20/2100Z        E. 21/1115Z TO 21/1400Z
      F. SFC TO 15,000 FT            F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
      DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
   2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: THE ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE."

From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php
141
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Something interesting on the Five-Day Graphical TWO - Beachlover, 11/13/2016, 2:17 am
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