| Otto Highlights: "Torrential rains causing life-threatening floods and mudslides". "The primary threat from Otto is going to be torrential rainfall, which will result in dangerous flooding and mudslides. Reports of mudslides across northern Costa Rica have already been received from amateur radio operators in that area." "Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through tonight." "On the forecast track, the center of Otto will continue to move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica through this evening, and emerge off of the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica by early Friday." Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/204840.shtml?5day#contents As for the earthquake, the highest recorded tsunami level observed was 0.2 feet in La Libertad, El Salvador. (As of the final tsunami threat message, unless new information is received or the situation changes.) HURRICANE OTTO ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 400 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016 ...HURRICANE OTTO MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.0N 84.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM E OF SAN CARLOS NICARAGUA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF SAN JUAN DEL SUR NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Governments of Nicaragua and Costa Rica have discontinued the Hurricane Warning and Watch for those countries, respectively. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Limon Costa Rica to Bluefields Nicaragua A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Costa Rica should monitor the progress of Otto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otto was located inland over southern Nicaragua near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 84.3 West. Otto is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), but a faster motion toward the west or west-southwest is expected to begin tonight and continue through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Otto will continue to move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica through this evening, and emerge off of the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast and Otto is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight. Additional weakening is anticipated after Otto moves over the Pacific Ocean. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through tonight. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Recent reports from amateur radio operators indicate that mudslides are occurring over portions of northern Costa Rica. Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with total rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches over the higher terrain of far western Panama and southern Costa Rica through Friday. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches can be expected tonight over San Andres and Providencia Islands. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by this evening. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane warning area. Water levels will subside by tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Stewart HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 400 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016 Satellite imagery and radar data from Nicaragua indicate that Hurricane Otto made landfall at approximately 1800 UTC today along the extreme southern coast of Nicaragua, just north of the town of San Juan de Nicaragua. The peak intensity at the time of landfall was estimated to be at least 95 kt and the central pressure was estimated at 975 mb. This makes Otto the southernmost landfalling hurricane in Central America on record. The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. Otto is located inland over extreme southern Nicaragua, just north of the border with Costa Rica. Easterly steering flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Mexico is expected to keep Otto or its remnants moving in a westward to west-southwestward direction throughout the forecast period. The global and regional models are in good agreement on this track scenario, and only a slight northward adjustment was made to the previous forecast track, mainly due to the more northward initial position of Otto. Otto is forecast to weaken rapidly while the hurricane moves farther inland over the rough terrain of southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica tonight. Otto is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by the time it emerges over the eastern North Pacific in about 12 h, and maintain that intensity during the 24-96 hour period. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models continue to weaken Otto throughout the forecast period, especially after 48 hours when the cyclone is forecast to interact with a dry Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind event. Erosion of the inner-core convection and wind field is expected from this negative interaction, resulting in dissipation of Otto by 48-72 h. In contrast, the GFS model keeps the gap-wind event away from Otto and strengthens the cyclone back to hurricane status by 48 h and beyond. For now, the NHC official intensity forecast will remain similar to the previous advisory, and more closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity model, which is well below all of the other intensity forecast models. The primary threat from Otto is going to be torrential rainfall, which will result in dangerous flooding and mudslides. Reports of mudslides across northern Costa Rica have already been received from amateur radio operators in that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 11.0N 84.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 12H 25/0600Z 10.7N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 25/1800Z 10.2N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 9.8N 91.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 9.5N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 9.4N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 10.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 12.1N 105.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart 700 WEPA40 PHEB 242022 TSUPAC TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 3 NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI 2017 UTC THU NOV 24 2016 ...PTWC FINAL TSUNAMI THREAT MESSAGE... **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE ***** THIS MESSAGE IS ISSUED FOR INFORMATION ONLY IN SUPPORT OF THE UNESCO/IOC PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING AND MITIGATION SYSTEM AND IS MEANT FOR NATIONAL AUTHORITIES IN EACH COUNTRY OF THAT SYSTEM. NATIONAL AUTHORITIES WILL DETERMINE THE APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF ALERT FOR EACH COUNTRY AND MAY ISSUE ADDITIONAL OR MORE REFINED INFORMATION. **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE **** NOTICE ***** THE TSUNAMI FORECAST IS UNCHANGED IN THIS MESSAGE. PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS --------------------------------- * MAGNITUDE 7.0 * ORIGIN TIME 1844 UTC NOV 24 2016 * COORDINATES 11.9 NORTH 88.9 WEST * DEPTH 33 KM / 20 MILES * LOCATION OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA EVALUATION ---------- * AN EARTHQUAKE WITH A PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE OF 7.0 OCCURRED OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AT 1844 UTC ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 24 2016. * BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA... THE TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE HAS NOW PASSED. TSUNAMI THREAT FORECAST...UPDATED --------------------------------- * THERE IS NO LONGER A TSUNAMI THREAT FROM THIS EARTHQUAKE. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS ------------------- * REMAIN OBSERVANT AND EXERCISE NORMAL CAUTION NEAR THE SEA. OTHERWISE... NO ACTION IS REQUIRED. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * MINOR SEA LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS MAY OCCUR IN SOME COASTAL AREAS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TSUNAMI OBSERVATIONS -------------------- * THE FOLLOWING ARE TSUNAMI WAVE OBSERVATIONS FROM COASTAL AND/OR DEEP-OCEAN SEA LEVEL GAUGES AT THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. THE MAXIMUM TSUNAMI HEIGHT IS MEASURED WITH RESPECT TO THE NORMAL TIDE LEVEL. GAUGE TIME OF MAXIMUM WAVE COORDINATES MEASURE TSUNAMI PERIOD GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON (UTC) HEIGHT (MIN) ------------------------------------------------------------- LA LIBERTAD SV 13.5N 89.3W 1955 0.05M/ 0.2FT 06 DART 32411 5.0N 90.8W 1957 0.01M/ 0.0FT 06 ACAJUTLA SV 13.6N 89.8W 1954 0.04M/ 0.1FT 08 * THE FOLLOWING ARE TSUNAMI WAVE MODEL FORECASTS AT THE SAME TIME OF OBSERVATIONS GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON HEIGHT ------------------------------------------------------- LA LIBERTAD SV 13.5N 89.3W 0.08M DART 32411 5.0N 90.8W 0.01M ACAJUTLA SV 13.6N 89.8W 0.03M NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION -------------------------------------- * THIS WILL BE THE FINAL STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS NEW INFORMATION IS RECEIVED OR THE SITUATION CHANGES. * AUTHORITATIVE INFORMATION ABOUT THE EARTHQUAKE FROM THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV/EARTHQUAKES -ALL LOWER CASE-. * FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THIS EVENT MAY BE FOUND AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV AND AT WWW.TSUNAMI.GOV. * COASTAL REGIONS OF HAWAII... AMERICAN SAMOA... GUAM... AND CNMI SHOULD REFER TO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE PLACES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV. * COASTAL REGIONS OF CALIFORNIA... OREGON... WASHINGTON... BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD ONLY REFER TO U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES THAT CAN BE FOUND AT NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV. $$ |