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Re: Did some number crunching & northern locations are getting hit more frequently

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 2/21/2017, 11:20 pm

I could see northern areas being impacted more with warmer waters. Storms can make it further north. Perhaps there are still some older missed storm tracks in the database to account for a bit of the increase in return rates at higher latitudes. I haven't really followed the progress on what the status is of various periods of reanalysis.

The decrease in some of the more frequently occurring areas are more surprising though. Are periods of higher shear cyclical over some period of time or is there higher shear as a result of climate changes? I don't know if there is enough information for anyone to know, regardless if they have a PhD. A lot of people use your statistics, though on this particular issue I don't think a PhD helps. Anyone can guess, but you need so many years of data to look at. The Atlantic seems to be a tricky basin. I think some of the other basins have seen increases in stronger storms (though a lot of that is all estimated, and in the past perhaps rather overestimated), but I would think that the Atlantic has more variation in weather patterns. A lot of various land areas contributing. A lot of the Pacific has wide open ocean where a lot of these storms are. I wouldn't think that there would as much variation due to land. I think an increase in sea surface temperatures in some of the other basins corresponds more to an increase in storms there. I don't know much about it, but I think the Atlantic basin areas that get hit are much more complex to study than other areas around the world. There is so much that can influence where the storms ultimately go to whether they even form. I wouldn't know where to start to know what specific patterns are changing that would lead to some areas getting hit more or less in among the commonly hit areas, like why would New Orleans return rate be increasing over Miami. I might make a guess and say less fronts turning storms? We are freezing a whole lot less here in Florida. We don't get a lot of strong cold fronts making their way deep down into the state. If Miami tends to get hit a little later in the season, and there are less fronts making their way down during second part of hurricane season, perhaps that? I don't know if there is enough data to point to anything yet.

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Did some number crunching & northern locations are getting hit more frequently - jimw, 2/21/2017, 2:52 pm

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