| First early models show it heading off into the Atlantic SE of Bermuda. West Atlantic satellite imagery: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/watl.html Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/90L_floater.html NASA satellite: http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=6&width=600&height=600&info=ir&zoom=2&palette=ir2.pal&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=25&lon=-69 Early models: http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=90&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1 The invest doesn't currently appear at HurricaneCity. I'm investigating why. Bob Henson and Jeff Masters said this today: "An early appearance of the Atlantic's first named storm of 2017 unlikely this week A large area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas over waters that are near 24°C (75°F)-barely warm enough to support formation of a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that the low had little in the way of organized heavy thunderstorm activity, and with wind shear a very high 50 - 60 knots, development of this storm into a subtropical storm is unlikely. The low will head north and then northeast, passing a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda on Tuesday. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks, the only March tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic was a Category 2 hurricane that passed through the Lesser Antilles on March 8, 1908." https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/australia-braces-for-debbie-localized-tornado-outbreak-possible-sunda And this on Friday: "An early appearance for the Atlantic's first named storm of 2017? The models are predicting the formation of a large area of low pressure a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas on Sunday and Monday, and this low has the potential to acquire characteristics of a subtropical storm as it heads north and then northeast, passing a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda on Tuesday. Water temperatures in the region are near 24°C (75°F), which is near average, and these waters may be barely warm enough to support formation of a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. According to phase space diagrams from Florida State University, the low will initially have a warm core that will gradually weaken as the storm encounters cooler waters near 21°C (70°F) by Tuesday. We give 5-day odds of 10% of this low becoming a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks, the only March tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic was a Category 2 hurricane that passed through the Lesser Antilles on March 8, 1908." https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/weird-coastal-el-nino-clobbers-peru-80-killed-14-billion-in-damage |