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Season Outlooks

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 4/18/2017, 8:03 pm

And with that long term outlook I'll also do the annual reminder that it only takes one hurricane. (because some people reading this are always new)

When that forecast came out I saw a local headline that said "Low key hurricane season?" Then to cover themselves, said "We're not out of the woods yet." Some media doesn't handle these outlooks well.

If there is just one single storm in the entire basin and that storm happens to hit you hard in a particular year, it was a bad season for you and if you didn't prepare, you will wish you had. That's why everyone always needs to prepare.

I like knowing the outlooks to compare how good they do, but there's a lot of media that don't communicate everything they should. You have to always prepare no matter what and sometimes the media doesn't communicate that message too and it's most important.

When the outlook numbers are low, some people get complacent. When they are high, and then someone doesn't get hit, then some stop trusting not only the outlooks, but the hurricane forecasts. (Climate Prediction Center puts out the season outlook, not the National Hurricane Center) Outlooks are the best estimates they can make. Obviously, sometimes it will be wrong. Hopefully they get better and better at it, but again, you never know if you will be the one to get hit in a particular year.

With that said, TWC goes with 30 year average.

Forecasts:

Colorado State, April 6th:
http://tropical.colostate.edu/

Weather Channel, Apirl 17th:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2017-hurricane-season-forecast-atlantic-the-weather-company-colorado-state

NOAA Climate Prediction Center, will be released in May:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.php


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2017 Natinal Hurricane Conference - Apr 17-20, New Orleans - cypresstx, 4/17/2017, 12:02 pm

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