Hurricane City Hurricane TV CaneTalk Logo
CaneTalk Forum | Search Messages | Post a New Message | Member Map

| HurricaneCity | Tropical Atlantic | Chat Room | Board Rules




Season Outlooks

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 4/18/2017, 8:03 pm

And with that long term outlook I'll also do the annual reminder that it only takes one hurricane. (because some people reading this are always new)

When that forecast came out I saw a local headline that said "Low key hurricane season?" Then to cover themselves, said "We're not out of the woods yet." Some media doesn't handle these outlooks well.

If there is just one single storm in the entire basin and that storm happens to hit you hard in a particular year, it was a bad season for you and if you didn't prepare, you will wish you had. That's why everyone always needs to prepare.

I like knowing the outlooks to compare how good they do, but there's a lot of media that don't communicate everything they should. You have to always prepare no matter what and sometimes the media doesn't communicate that message too and it's most important.

When the outlook numbers are low, some people get complacent. When they are high, and then someone doesn't get hit, then some stop trusting not only the outlooks, but the hurricane forecasts. (Climate Prediction Center puts out the season outlook, not the National Hurricane Center) Outlooks are the best estimates they can make. Obviously, sometimes it will be wrong. Hopefully they get better and better at it, but again, you never know if you will be the one to get hit in a particular year.

With that said, TWC goes with 30 year average.

Forecasts:

Colorado State, April 6th:
http://tropical.colostate.edu/

Weather Channel, Apirl 17th:
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2017-hurricane-season-forecast-atlantic-the-weather-company-colorado-state

NOAA Climate Prediction Center, will be released in May:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane-archive.php


101



In this thread:

2017 Natinal Hurricane Conference - Apr 17-20, New Orleans - cypresstx, 4/17/2017, 12:02 pm

< Return to message board



Post A Reply

Subject:


Message:

Add Smiley:

Add Image (Tutorial):
Image URL:
Add  


Embed Video or other Social Media:
Page URL of YouTube Video: Add
Page URL of Facebook post or image (not image URL): Add
Page URL of Twitter tweet: Add
Page URL of recorded Ustream Video: Add
Page URL of Vine Video: Add
If you prefer to embed something manually for any of these sites, you can also do that. For Ustream, you can only embed live videos manually rather than using the above feature. No other sites are currently supported.

If you embed something manually please be aware that due to the security restrictions on some browsers manually entering embedded code may not allow it to appear correctly when you view it. However, after you post the message it will work properly. This will not be a problem if you use the above feature to add embedded content.