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Re: Yucatan gyre up tp 50% in 5-day, still 0 in 2-day

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/16/2017, 6:11 am

Jeff Masters' great blog from yesterday on the systems:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/odds-increasing-gulf-mexico-tropical-storm-next-week

Global models:

GFS:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850

ECMWF
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850

GFS shear forecast:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=shear


For the Atlantic one...


If it survived shear might lessen a bit later in the Carib, but it's also low in latitude. It will first have to survive possible interaction with S. America and some strong shear. This from Masters' blog: "However, any system entering the Caribbean is likely to encounter progressively stronger wind shear, and none of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members bring the system fully through the Caribbean."


For the Gulf one...


Jeff Masters blog covers it well too. Its large size makes it unlikely, at least at this point, to develop too much. But that might be worse for a larger area, with heavy rain posing what could be deadly threat, from Central America to across the Gulf.


Unusual to be talking about the possibility of "B" and "C" named storms. It seems like they would be weaker, at least from most of the current global models, but a lot of rain could be deadly for the Gulf one. A lot of uncertainty about what the Atlantic one might be, if anything, long term.


Climatology:




From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/


Atlantic basin satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/tatl.html
More: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

78



In this thread:

Yucatan gyre up tp 50% in 5-day, still 0 in 2-day - cypresstx, 6/15/2017, 7:51 am
    • Re: Yucatan gyre up tp 50% in 5-day, still 0 in 2-day - Chris in Tampa, 6/16/2017, 6:11 am

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