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2am EDT on Saturday, June 17: Caribbean and Atlantic systems up to 70% chance within 5 days

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/17/2017, 5:03 am

"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1600 miles east-southeast of the
southern Windward Islands is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms.  This disturbance continues to show signs of
organization, and some additional development is possible
during the next couple of days before conditions become less
favorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected
to continue moving toward the west at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
cloudiness and showers over most of Honduras and the northwestern
Caribbean Sea.  Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual
development of this large disturbance while it moves slowly
northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into
the south-central Gulf of Mexico early next week.  Regardless of
development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Stewart"

From: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5



Models for 92L in Atlantic:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=92&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1

Floater for 92L:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/92L_floater.html

Wider Atlantic satellite views:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Bob Henson's blog from Friday:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/two-named-storms-may-be-forming-atlantic

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2am EDT on Saturday, June 17: Caribbean and Atlantic systems up to 70% chance within 5 days - Chris in Tampa, 6/17/2017, 5:03 am

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