Re: 93L - models take it North
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/18/2017, 1:51 pm
The upper level may go more right and the lower level further left. Most of the rain I would imagine would go with the upper level. I'm guessing whether the lower level can be pulled along with the upper level is why the two models have been different. Take a look at these saved images of the GFS run for 12Z on June 18th. These are the forecast for the same time, on Tuesday at 6Z. (2am EDT)




On menu for "Upper Dynamics" > "Simulated IR Satellite"

From: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us

Look where the low actually is at the surface and look at the simulated IR image.

Still a big difference if you take a look at the Euro on that site for the position of the surface low, but it's likely to be a tug of war between upper and lower levels with the shear.

Shear forecast:



                   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                   * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                   *  INVEST      AL932017  06/18/17  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    32    35    37    41    48    52    58    56    53    46    40    37
V (KT) LAND       30    32    35    31    30    28    31    37    34    32    25    21    25
V (KT) LGEM       30    32    34    31    30    28    27    32    32    30    28    25    29
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11    11    17    17    11    12    12    20    20    16    16    22    23
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     0     4     4     0     5    -1     1    -3     0     0    -2    -2
SHEAR DIR        255   237   236   254   258   229   248   256   288   272   276   259   277
SST (C)         29.0  28.8  28.7  28.6  28.4  28.1  27.8  27.7  27.8  27.4  26.9  26.4  25.7
POT. INT. (KT)   148   145   144   143   140   136   133   131   133   129   125   120   114
ADJ. POT. INT.   133   130   128   128   126   122   119   116   118   116   113   108   102
200 MB T (C)   -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C)   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.4   0.5   0.4   0.5   0.3   0.4  -0.2   0.3
TH_E DEV (C)       7     9    10     8     8    10     9     9     8     8     6    10     7
700-500 MB RH     78    77    77    76    74    73    68    66    58    56    55    58    60
MODEL VTX (KT)     9    11    12    12    13    18    20    22    19    17    11     7     6
850 MB ENV VOR    85    83    91    97    93   109   101   106    92    74   -22   -48   -84
200 MB DIV        84    85    90    82    80    64    27    36    14    40    20    37    35
700-850 TADV       0     1     4    -1    -3     2     1    12     2    10     2    10     0
LAND (KM)         53    15     7    -7   -15   -62     5   156   290   423   177  -109    14
LAT (DEG N)     18.0  18.3  18.6  18.9  19.4  20.4  21.6  23.0  24.2  25.7  27.7  30.3  32.7
LONG(DEG W)     87.3  87.5  87.5  87.6  87.6  87.9  88.2  88.2  87.7  86.5  84.6  82.6  79.8
STM SPEED (KT)     3     3     3     4     5     6     7     7     8    11    15    16    17
HEAT CONTENT      35    35    21    62    63    50    21    10    16    24     2     8     0

 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/  3      CX,CY:  -1/  2
 T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  683  (MEAN=618)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  16.2 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  41.0 (MEAN=65.0)
 PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            8.4

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
 SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   2.   3.   6.  10.  14.  17.  20.  22.  23.  23.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   4.   2.   1.  -1.  -3.  -6.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR    -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -5.  -5.  -4.
 PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -0.
 200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -3.
 THETA_E EXCESS        -0.   0.   0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.  -0.  -0.
 700-500 MB RH         -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.
 MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   1.   3.   8.  10.  14.   9.   5.  -3.  -9. -10.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   3.   2.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -0.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES   -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
 GOES PREDICTORS       -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   7.  11.  18.  22.  28.  26.  23.  16.  10.   7.

               CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   30. LAT, LON:   18.0    87.3

     ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST     06/18/17  12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

    Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.66           5.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    13.4      30.1  to    2.9       0.61           2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    43.2       0.0  to  156.2       0.28           0.9
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.6       2.4  to   -3.0       0.55           1.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    16.2      36.6  to    2.8       0.60           2.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    30.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.21           0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    99.2      28.4  to  139.6       0.64           1.4
D200 (10**7s-1)       :    84.2     -29.7  to  181.5       0.54           0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    48.8     961.4  to  -67.1       0.89           0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00           0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   7% is   1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  19% is   1.7 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  14% is   2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   8% is   1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   7% is   2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  13% is   2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  17% is   3.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  18% is   3.1 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SHIPS-RII:     7.0%   19.3%   14.5%    8.4%    7.4%   13.3%   16.6%   18.3%
   Logistic:     2.6%   15.3%    6.8%    1.1%    0.4%    4.1%    8.6%   25.3%
   Bayesian:     0.6%    1.0%    0.5%    0.0%    0.0%    0.2%    0.4%    1.5%
  Consensus:     3.4%   11.9%    7.3%    3.2%    2.6%    5.9%    8.5%   15.0%

  ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST     06/18/17  12 UTC         ##
  ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
  ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST     06/18/2017  12 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
     TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  30    32    35    31    30    28    31    37    34    32    25    21    25
18HR AGO           30    29    32    28    27    25    28    34    31    29    22    18    22
12HR AGO           30    27    26    22    21    19    22    28    25    23    16   DIS   DIS
 6HR AGO           30    24    21    20    19    17    20    26    23    21   DIS   DIS   DIS
     NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
 IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
 IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

From: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

The shear forecast is for the track model TABM:

http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=93&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1&models=TABS,TABM,TABD

Screenshot of those models for 12Z run on June 18th, with numbers being the number of hours out from 12Z (8am EDT) today:



If you look at the track for it and the other TAB models you can see the difference in whether this is steered by shallow or medium layer. I just posted this in another thread:


From: http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV_Workshop2017/19a_TC_Track_Forecasting_RichardPasch_DaveZelinsky.pdf

The difference is massive between shallow and medium steering. Hard to forecast. If just a little better organized might pull much further east. Less so, much more west. But seems like most of rain will be east of the low level center due to shear.

5 and 7 day rain totals:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml
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93L - recon Sunday - cypresstx, 6/17/2017, 2:15 pm
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