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Tropical Storm Warning Issued For Part of the Louisiana Coast

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 6/19/2017, 5:05 pm

NHC getting some use out of the new policy.

Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/205153.shtml?cone#contents
Though much of the heavy rain will likely be east of the track.

Satellite floaters:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
Although Cypress posted the nice GOES16 imagery.

Wundermap radar:
https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/
Doesn't work as good as it used to.






Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PART OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.7W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City,
Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from west of Intracoastal City
to High Island, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Intracoastal City to High Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.7 North, longitude 88.7 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is
expected tonight, followed by a slower motion toward the northwest
on Tuesday and Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the
disturbance will move toward the Louisiana coast on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before the system reaches
the coast.

Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for some
additional development of this system during the next day or two,
and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form during that
time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area on Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi and
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through Wednesday
evening.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan






Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

A pair of ASCAT passes between 15 and 16Z showed that the
disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico has an area of tropical-storm-
force winds within a large area of deep convection 100 to 150 n mi
northeast of a broad low center. The ASCAT data and visible
satellite imagery show that the center is not well defined, and in
fact multiple low-level swirls are evident in the latest imagery. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the system and will provide more data on its wind
structure.

The NWS now has the option to issue advisories, watches, and
warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but
which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane
conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy
this was not possible.  These systems are known as Potential
Tropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered from the
same list as depressions. Because of the threat to the central
Gulf coast, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Three and the appropriate watches/warnings have been issued.
Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is
generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72
hours.

The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data. The
initial pressure is set to 1002 mb based on extrapolated data from
the aircraft. Only modest strengthening is expected given the
moderate to strong southwesterly shear of around 30 kt expected to
persist over the system during the next couple of days. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity consensus aid.

Given the broad nature of the low, the initial motion estimate is a
rather uncertain 350/08. During the first 12 to 24 hours the system
will move northward to north-northwestward due to the a weakness in
the subtropical ridge over the northern Gulf and then the system
should slow and turn more northwestward as it interacts with an
upper-level low currently situated off the Texas coast.  The details
of this interaction will have significant implications on the track
of the system, and there remains a fair amount of model spread.  The
HWRF is on the right side of the guidance envelope, with a track
toward southeastern Louisiana while the UKMET and ECMWF show a
solution toward southwest Louisiana or extreme eastern Texas. For
now, the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope
and a little left of the TCVA consensus aid. Given the disorganized
nature of the circulation and the fact that the wind and rain
hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are
encouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast.

The primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy
rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 24.7N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  20/0600Z 26.0N  89.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  20/1800Z 27.2N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H  21/0600Z 27.9N  91.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  21/1800Z 28.7N  92.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
72H  22/1800Z 32.0N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
96H  23/1800Z 35.5N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

156



In this thread:

Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE - cypresstx, 6/19/2017, 4:57 pm

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