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Posted by cypresstx on 7/2/2017, 2:42 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak area of low
pressure located about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands remain disorganized.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for some gradual development of this system later
this week while it moves generally westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

The main impediment for development is the presence of the dry air to the system's north. Otherwise, conditions are favorable for development: wind shear should mostly be moderate, and SSTs will warm to 28.5°C (83°F) by Friday. The system does not have a high forward speed, giving it time this week to leverage Earth's spin to help itself get spinning. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a periodic pulse of thunderstorm activity that circles equatorial regions of the globe every few weeks, is in a phase that will help development of Atlantic tropical cyclones this week. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of tropical cyclone development of 10% and 40%, respectively. The Florida State University Tropical Cyclone Genesis Portal--the top aid used by NHC to make genesis forecasts--gave 5-day odds of development of 44%, based on a consensus of the 0Z Sunday forecasts from the GFS, UKMET and Canadian models.

 ** TC Genesis Summary **
 ** Model consensus output initialized 2017070212 **

ID # LAT (N) LON (W) PROB48 (%) PROB120 (%)

1 16.75 50.80 8  11
2 12.19 36.00 17  61
3 40.86 94.40 29  22


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outlook - cypresstx, 7/2/2017, 2:42 pm

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