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Happy 4th!

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/4/2017, 5:13 pm

I hadn't noticed before, but the "possible tropical cyclone" they use in those images sounds a lot like "potential tropical cyclone". But they will not start advisories on a "potential tropical cyclone" unless it is a threat to land when watches and/or warnings would be needed.

Maybe the fast start in using names off the list got people on edge. Anytime you can compare something in a year to 2005 I guess it might scare some people. But a bit of a fast start doesn't necessarily mean anything of course. But early in the season, every year, we have more almost storms that don't develop. And how many times has the long term GFS wiped out a major population center in a run? And then sometimes literally a swing from taking the storm to Central America and then to around Canada? I know they work on the GFS but every year it still has crazy things long term. I keep waiting for changes to make it better. Of course some of the crazier solutions could end up being correct, but if it's only right a fraction of the time long term, I won't give it much credit. It definitely isn't worth worrying about. At least track forecasts in the short term and around 5 to 7 days are great from the NHC and that is what matters most. But of course we'll always be talking about the GFS' shenanigans in the long term. If it puts together a lot of runs of the same thing in the long term and then other models jump on board, then a possible storm and its track might be something to look at more closely.

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possible Don - Happy 4th everyone! - cypresstx, 7/4/2017, 4:06 pm

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