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Invest 90L - Around Aruba

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/4/2017, 6:51 am

"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large and complex area of disturbed weather, associated with a
broad low pressure system, extends from about 400 miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands to about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual consolidation and development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by early next week over the eastern or
central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  This system is forecast to move
toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A strong tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more
conducive for development by Sunday over the western Caribbean Sea
and by early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the
disturbance moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
This system could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday.  For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Beven"

Outlook: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5




90L Satellite floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/90L_floater.html

Radars:
http://www.meteo.cw/rad_loop_ppi.php?Lang=Eng&St=TNCC&Sws=R11
http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/kidbuuComposite_displayer.php?Product=Reflectivity&Sector=fullView&Composite=Sabre



Meanwhile, also Invest 99L in the Atlantic.
Floaters: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
More Atlantic satellite views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html



Models for invests:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/

Global models:
GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850
Euro: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850

Now is a great time to remind people that models at long range are much less reliable. You want to see a run to run consistency and multiple model support.

Any US impacts still uncertain with both. NHC talks about 90L possibly in the Bay of Campeche eventually, in the SW Gulf. Some models then move it again into Mexico. 99L is still way out there to know much, around 10 days out if it were to near US.

164



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Invest 90L - Around Aruba - Chris in Tampa, 8/4/2017, 6:51 am

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