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80% chance within 5 days as of 2am Sunday

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/6/2017, 6:58 am

More convective this morning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/90L_floater.html



"Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea have changed little. However,
further development of this system is possible while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before
it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or Tuesday.  Even if
formation does not occur before the system reaches the Yucatan
peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical storm could form over
the Bay of Campeche by midweek.  Development would likely not occur
if the system moves inland over Central America and southeastern
Mexico and does not re-emerge over water.  An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this
afternoon, if necessary.  Interests along the coasts of Honduras,
Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


2. Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
has changed little during the past several hours. Some slow
development is still possible during the next two to three days
before the system encounters less favorable environmental conditions
by the middle of the week. This system is expected to move generally
west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Stewart"



Models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=90&latestinvest=1&display=google_map&latestrun=1
Most still take it into the Bay of Campeche and then again into Mexico.

58



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