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10am CDT on Monday: 60mph; WNW at 14mph; 999mb (est) ... "Continues to gradually strengthen."

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/7/2017, 11:40 am

Recon would have been nice to have already. It's on the way:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/

This is looking rather healthy. While technically it's only forecast to be 70mph at first landfall, I would think it's much more likely to be a hurricane. (though hurricane strength is one 5mph advisory increment away from that) It might be a bit stronger than that, it has some time. Not having recon to know more about the core is unfortunate. But they will have sampled it within the next couple hours.




"Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

Visible and microwave satellite imagery shows that Franklin's cloud
pattern is becoming better organized with banding features starting
to appear. Inner-core convection is not very abundant over the
southwest quadrant and the center is still estimated to be located
near the southwest edge of the main cloud mass.  Given the increase
in organization after the 12Z Dvorak intensity estimate of 45 kt
from TAFB, the advisory intensity is set to 50 kt.  An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin this
afternoon and should provide a better estimate of the strength of
the storm.  The upper-level environment is becoming increasingly
conducive for intensification, with anticyclonic outflow becoming
established over the tropical cyclone during the next couple of
days. Franklin could become a hurricane before its first landfall,
but interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will cause some weakening
on Tuesday.  Thereafter, Franklin will be moving over SSTs near 30
deg C, which of course favors strengthening.  A complicating factor
at days 2 and 3 could be some northerly shear associated with an
upper-level ridge over northeastern Mexico, as indicated by the
global models.  Nonetheless Franklin should be near or at hurricane
intensity by the time it makes landfall in mainland Mexico.  The
official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt.
Little changes have been made to the track forecast from previous
advisories.  The steering environment remains fairly simple, and is
dominated by a zonally-oriented ridge that should cause a
west-northwestward to westward motion for the next several days.
The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus TVCN and leans slightly toward the ECMWF at the end of
the period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 17.7N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  08/0000Z 18.5N  86.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  08/1200Z 19.5N  88.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  09/0000Z 20.1N  91.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
48H  09/1200Z 20.5N  93.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER
72H  10/1200Z 20.8N  97.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch"




"Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017

...FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Allen

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Belize City northward to the border of Mexico
* The coast of Mexico from Chetumal to Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Campeche to Sabancuy

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere around the Bay of Campeche should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 85.1 West.  Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours.  On
the forecast track, the center of Franklin will be near the east
coast of the Yucatan peninsula by this evening.  Franklin is then
expected to move across the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the east coast
of the Yucatan peninsula, and Franklin could be near hurricane
strength by the time landfall occurs this evening or tonight.  Some
weakening is likely while the system moves across the Yucatan
Peninsula on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts
of around 12 inches, are possible across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico and Belize through Wednesday, with the highest amounts over
the Mexican state of Quintana Roo.  These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch
area by this evening.  Tropical Storm conditions are expected to
begin in portions of the warning area this afternoon or evening.
Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico
on Tuesday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch"




NASA visible satellite:
http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?type=Animation&width=800&height=550&info=vis&zoom=1&lat=18&lon=-85

Belize Radar:
http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/observations/radar/radar-images

Longer radar loop being created here at Flhurricane.com:
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?258

58



In this thread:

Hurricane watch issued for Franklin along eastern Yucatan coast - Chris in Tampa, 8/7/2017, 5:05 am

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