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Hurricane warning issued along mainland Mexican coast for strengthening Franklin

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/9/2017, 12:13 am

Franklin has started strengthening. It has quickly developed a CDO over its center. Storms in the Bay of Campeche have a tendency to develop quickly, likely due to the shape of the bay.

Franklin floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/07L_floater.html

Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone




"Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017

The center of Franklin moved off the western coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula soon after 2100 UTC, and Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft arrived not too long after that to begin
sampling the cyclone's circulation.  The planes have observed
increasing deep convection, and the NOAA aircraft measured a peak
700-mb flight-level wind of 52 kt within the convection east of the
center.  The SFMR instruments have measured surface winds higher
than 50 kt, but these values were either rain flagged or likely
influenced by shoaling effects in the shallow shelf waters off the
Yucatan coast.  Accounting for these considerations, Franklin's
initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.  The Air Force plane also
reported that the central pressure has fallen to 996 mb.

Franklin is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, and mid-level
ridging located over the northern Gulf of Mexico should force the
cyclone to turn westward by Wednesday morning.  The track guidance
suggests that a south-of-due-west motion is possible after 24 hours
as Franklin's circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of
Mexico, and the cyclone's center is expected to cross the coast
Wednesday night or early Thursday.  The new NHC track forecast is a
little south of the previous forecast, accounting for the southward
bend noted in the track models.

The waters of the Bay of Campeche are around 30 deg C and by
themselves should support further intensification.  One inhibiting
factor for strengthening could be a gradual increase in northerly
shear over the system up until landfall, yet many of the intensity
models show Franklin intensifying in spite of the shear.  In fact,
the regional hurricane models depict Franklin reaching an intensity
of 70-75 kt in 24 hours.  Given that the storm is already producing
45-kt winds after just moving offshore, the NHC forecast lies closer
to the more aggressive models and shows Franklin reaching hurricane
intensity in about 24 hours.  Regardless, there is an increasing
likelihood that Franklin will be able to reach hurricane strength
before landfall, and accordingly, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Warning for portions of the state of Veracruz.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 20.3N  91.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  09/1200Z 20.4N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  10/0000Z 20.4N  95.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  10/1200Z 20.0N  97.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
48H  11/0000Z 19.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg"




"Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017

...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF
VERACRUZ...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 91.3W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Puerto
de Veracruz to Tuxpan.  A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
from Sabancuy to east of Puerto de Veracruz.  The Tropical Storm
Warning east of Celestun has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Celestun
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 91.3 West.  Franklin is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn
toward the west is expected overnight, with Franklin maintaining
that motion up until landfall.  On the forecast track, the center
of Franklin will move westward over the Bay of Campeche overnight
and on Wednesday and is forecast to cross the coast of the Mexican
state of Veracruz Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50
mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is
expected, and Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane late
Wednesday and reach the coast of Mexico as a hurricane Wednesday
night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Franklin is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, and isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches are possible across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico through tonight.  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the
Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla,
Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by Wednesday night.  Winds are expected
to first reach tropical storm strength on Wednesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday night.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area
in mainland Mexico by Wednesday evening.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center
makes landfall in the Hurricane Watch area.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg"



NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

70



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Hurricane warning issued along mainland Mexican coast for strengthening Franklin - Chris in Tampa, 8/9/2017, 12:13 am

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