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Re: Hurricane warning issued along mainland Mexican coast for strengthening Franklin

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/9/2017, 3:11 am

That's at the 925mb level. The HWRF model released in the NHC's ATCF model system has 90 knots (about 104mph) for the point just before landfall. (for 18Z run released around 0Z in ATCF system)

Models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=07&display=google_map&latestrun=1&models=HWRF
To show all model points, use the fourth option on the page and select "Show [all] hour interval points".

Or, make sure Flash is set to always run in your browser for HurricaneCity.com and view the wind diagram (how to enable Flash for a site in Google Chrome):
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=07&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1

HMON was at 114mph for peak in that run. (Hurricane Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model) It's the model that replaced the GFDL.

The most recent runs are out (0Z late cycle, 6Z early cycle) and they show higher forecasts speeds for early cycle models, but the late cycle model mostly initialized at around 40 knots, so the forecast maximum now is less than the prior run.

Now HMON peaks at 90mph and HWRF at 72mph. But while the storm is close to following most recent HMON forecast, calling for 54 knots for 6Z, when the storm is actually 55 knots. The HWRF had 57 knots forecast for 18Z today. The storm is already 55 knots at 6Z and the forecast wind for that hour for the HWRF was 39 knots.

So the most recent late cycle models are too low in my opinion.

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Hurricane warning issued along mainland Mexican coast for strengthening Franklin - Chris in Tampa, 8/9/2017, 12:13 am

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