| Now forecast to be 80mph at landfall. Also of note: "Indeed, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40-50 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening during the next 24 hours." SHIPS intensity output included at bottom of post. Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500 UTC showed 700-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt about 40 n mi northeast of the center, and surface wind estimates from the SFMR of 50-55 kt in the same area. Satellite imagery has shown increased organization, with a well-defined convective band that yields satellite intensity estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is now 280/11, a little faster than before. A mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northwest of Franklin should keep the cyclone moving generally westward for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a south of west motion as Franklin's circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The new forecast track, which is nudged a little north of the previous track, has the center making landfall in the Mexican state of Veracruz just past the 24 hour point, followed by a motion into the mountains of eastern Mexico. The new track is in good agreement with the various consensus models. Franklin is crossing the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and continued strengthening appears likely. Indeed, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40-50 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening during the next 24 hours. However, the large-scale models forecast moderate northeasterly shear to develop during that time, which may slow intensification below rapid levels. The new intensity forecast calls for Franklin to become a hurricane in 12 h and reach a peak intensity of 70 kt near the time of landfall. This forecast again lies close to the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast as Franklin moves into the mountains of eastern Mexico, and the low-level center is likely to dissipate completely by 48 h. It should be noted that some large-scale models re-form the low-level center over the Pacific as the remnants of Franklin reach that basin in about 72 h. The initial 34-kt wind radii were revised based on a combination of aircraft, surface, and scatterometer data. However, Franklin is expected to increase in size, and this requires a northward extension of the Tropical Storm Warning on the eastern coast of Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 20.4N 92.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 20.5N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 20.3N 96.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.9N 98.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017 ...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 92.7W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo. The Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del Carmen * The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas, located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in eastern Mexico. These rains will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the Hurricane Warning area by tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the Bay of Campeche through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Mexico by this evening. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven 2am EDT Wednesday SHIPS text output: * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/09/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 67 70 70 63 57 58 58 57 57 58 60 V (KT) LAND 55 62 67 70 70 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 63 70 73 72 44 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 14 14 13 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 3 0 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 359 8 350 10 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 172 171 171 171 170 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 164 163 160 161 162 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 10 11 11 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 72 71 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 20 18 9 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 23 42 47 66 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 32 38 63 40 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -2 -4 -11 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 169 222 230 144 48 -178 -193 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.5 20.4 19.9 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.1 93.2 94.3 95.3 96.3 98.5 100.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 35 48 57 41 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -13. -23. -25. -26. -27. -28. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 15. 8. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.4 92.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 12.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.62 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.27 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.70 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 152.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 46.3% 30.5% 23.2% 9.6% 25.0% 19.5% 20.3% Logistic: 17.4% 36.4% 22.6% 10.6% 9.6% 26.4% 16.2% 22.8% Bayesian: 29.8% 57.0% 51.7% 15.4% 4.6% 6.2% 1.7% 1.2% Consensus: 21.3% 46.5% 34.9% 16.4% 7.9% 19.2% 12.5% 14.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 62 67 70 70 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 59 62 62 34 24 20 19 19 19 19 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 54 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT Latest outputs at bottom of this folder: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ |