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4am CDT Wednesday: 65mph; W at 13mph; 994mb (est)

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/9/2017, 5:27 am

Now forecast to be 80mph at landfall. Also of note:

"Indeed, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40-50 percent chance of 25 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 hours."

SHIPS intensity output included at bottom of post.





Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
0500 UTC showed 700-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt about 40 n mi
northeast of the center, and surface wind estimates from the SFMR
of 50-55 kt in the same area.  Satellite imagery has shown increased
organization, with a well-defined convective band that yields
satellite intensity estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion is now 280/11, a little faster than before.
A mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northwest of Franklin
should keep the cyclone moving generally westward for the next
24 hours or so, followed by a south of west motion as Franklin's
circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Mexico.  The
new forecast track, which is nudged a little north of the previous
track, has the center making landfall in the Mexican state of
Veracruz just past the 24 hour point, followed by a motion into the
mountains of eastern Mexico.  The new track is in good agreement
with the various consensus models.

Franklin is crossing the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche
and continued strengthening appears likely.  Indeed, the SHIPS
Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40-50 percent chance of 25 kt of
strengthening during the next 24 hours
.  However, the large-scale
models forecast moderate northeasterly shear to develop during that
time, which may slow intensification below rapid levels.  The new
intensity forecast calls for Franklin to become a hurricane in 12 h
and reach a peak intensity of 70 kt near the time of landfall.  This
forecast again lies close to the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.  After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast as Franklin
moves into the mountains of eastern Mexico, and the low-level center
is likely to dissipate completely by 48 h.  It should be noted that
some large-scale models re-form the low-level center over the
Pacific as the remnants of Franklin reach that basin in about 72 h.

The initial 34-kt wind radii were revised based on a combination of
aircraft, surface, and scatterometer data.  However, Franklin is
expected to increase in size, and this requires a northward
extension of the Tropical Storm Warning on the eastern coast of
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 20.4N  92.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  09/1800Z 20.5N  94.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  10/0600Z 20.3N  96.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  10/1800Z 19.9N  98.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven





Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

...FRANKLIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MODIFIED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the coast of Mexico north of Rio Panuco to Barra del Tordo.  The
Government of Mexico has also discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning east of Ciudad del Carmen.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Tuxpan

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Ciudad del
Carmen
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 92.7 West. Franklin is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours.  On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to approach the
coast of eastern Mexico today, then cross the coast in the Mexican
state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected, and
Franklin is forecast to become a hurricane later today and reach the
coast of Mexico as a hurricane tonight or early Thursday.  Rapid
weakening is expected after landfall in Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.  The Mexican automated station at Cayo Arenas,
located to the north-northeast of the center, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 mph
(81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Franklin is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico through Monday.  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible
across the Mexican states of Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern
Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo, Queretar and eastern San Louis Potosi in
eastern Mexico.  These rains will be capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area by tonight.  Winds are expected to first
reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the
Bay of Campeche through tonight.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Mexico by this evening.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven








2am EDT Wednesday SHIPS text output:


                   * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                   * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                   *  FRANKLIN    AL072017  08/09/17  06 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    55    62    67    70    70    63    57    58    58    57    57    58    60
V (KT) LAND       55    62    67    70    70    42    32    28    27    27    27    27    27
V (KT) LGEM       55    63    70    73    72    44    32   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

SHEAR (KT)         8    14    14    13    17    16    15   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -2    -1     2     3     0     1     6   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR        351   359     8   350    10    50    44   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         30.0  30.2  30.2  30.1  30.1  30.0  30.3   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   170   172   171   171   171   170   172   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
ADJ. POT. INT.   161   164   163   160   161   162   170   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB VXT (C)   0.3   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.5   0.8   0.6  N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)      11     9    10    11    11    11     9   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     68    68    69    72    71    77    78   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
MODEL VTX (KT)    21    22    22    20    18     9     3  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    13    14    23    42    47    66    74   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        42    32    38    63    40    45    44   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
700-850 TADV      -1    -5    -2    -4   -11    -6     1   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        169   222   230   144    48  -178  -193   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     20.4  20.5  20.6  20.5  20.4  19.9  19.4   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)     92.1  93.2  94.3  95.3  96.3  98.5 100.9   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)    11    10    10     9    10    11    12   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
HEAT CONTENT      32    35    48    57    41    16     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  2
 T-12 MAX WIND:  35            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  601  (MEAN=618)
 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  14.9 (MEAN=14.5)
 % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  90.0 (MEAN=65.0)
 PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR):            2.3

                       INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                        6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  13.  13.
 SST POTENTIAL          1.   3.   4.   6.   9.  12.  14.  15.  16.  17.  19.  19.
 VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   0.  -0.  -1.  -0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
 VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
 VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   6.   7.   8.   8.
 PERSISTENCE            4.   6.   7.   7.   6.   6.   5.   4.   2.   0.  -1.  -2.
 200/250 MB TEMP.      -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.
 THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
 700-500 MB RH         -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.  -6.
 MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.  -1.  -3. -13. -23. -25. -26. -27. -28. -29. -29.
 850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -0.  -0.  -0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.
 200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.
 850-700 T ADVEC        0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
 ZONAL STORM MOTION    -0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
 STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -0.
 DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
 GOES PREDICTORS        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.
 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT    -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -0.
                       ----------------------------------------------------------
 TOTAL CHANGE           7.  12.  15.  15.   8.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   3.   5.

               CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   55. LAT, LON:   20.4    92.1

     ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN   08/09/17  06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

    Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):    20.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.84          12.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    13.3      30.1  to    2.9       0.62           3.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    42.6       0.0  to  156.2       0.27           1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.7       2.4  to   -3.0       0.31           1.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    14.9      36.6  to    2.8       0.64           4.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    55.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.91           2.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   106.7      28.4  to  139.6       0.70           3.0
D200 (10**7s-1)       :    43.0     -29.7  to  181.5       0.34           0.7
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   152.6     961.4  to  -67.1       0.79           0.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00           0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  17% is   3.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  46% is   4.0 times sample mean (11.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  31% is   4.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  23% is   5.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  25% is   4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  20% is   3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  20% is   3.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%)
   
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  SHIPS-RII:    16.7%   46.3%   30.5%   23.2%    9.6%   25.0%   19.5%   20.3%
   Logistic:    17.4%   36.4%   22.6%   10.6%    9.6%   26.4%   16.2%   22.8%
   Bayesian:    29.8%   57.0%   51.7%   15.4%    4.6%    6.2%    1.7%    1.2%
  Consensus:    21.3%   46.5%   34.9%   16.4%    7.9%   19.2%   12.5%   14.8%

  ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN   08/09/17  06 UTC         ##
  ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
  ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN   08/09/2017  06 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0    ***(***)     ***(***)       0(***)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0     ERR          ERR          ERR         <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
     TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  55    62    67    70    70    42    32    28    27    27    27    27    27
18HR AGO           55    54    59    62    62    34    24    20    19    19    19    19    19
12HR AGO           55    52    51    54    54    26    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
 6HR AGO           55    49    46    45    45    17   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
     NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
 IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
 IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT


Latest outputs at bottom of this folder:
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

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Hurricane warning issued along mainland Mexican coast for strengthening Franklin - Chris in Tampa, 8/9/2017, 12:13 am

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