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Franklin becomes the first hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/9/2017, 5:15 pm

It is currently forecast to make landfall later tonight with about 85mph winds.

One more hurricane hunter mission will take place before landfall. It just left Keesler AFB is Mississippi.




Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/07L_floater.html

NHC:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/




Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations from earlier today indicated
that Franklin was very close to hurricane strength.  Since the time
of the last mission, the system has become better organized, with a
faint eye occasionally making an appearance on visible satellite
images.  Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 65
kt and this value will be used for the advisory intensity, making
Franklin the first hurricane of the season.  There is some northerly
shear evident over the system and with several arc clouds evident
over the outer circulation's northwest quadrant, perhaps some dry
air is nearby.  These environmental conditions are not expected to
be detrimental enough, however, to prevent at least some additional
strengthening before landfall tonight.  An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin a few hours
from now to check the strength of the cyclone.

The hurricane continues to move westward, with the initial motion
estimated to be 270/10.  There are essentially no changes to the
track forecast or reasoning.  The flow on the southern side of a
mid-level high pressure area near the Texas coast should continue
to steer Franklin towards, and across, the southwest Gulf coast of
Mexico.  The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical
track model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 20.1N  94.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  10/0600Z 19.8N  96.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
24H  10/1800Z 19.3N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
36H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Hurricane Franklin Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
400 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017

...FRANKLIN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2017 ATLANTIC
SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 94.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Rojo to Rio Panuco

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico east of Puerto de Veracruz to Puerto Dos Bocas
* The coast of Mexico north of Tuxpan to Barra del Tordo

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Franklin was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 94.9 West.  Franklin is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so.  On the
forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to cross the
coast in the Mexican state of Veracruz tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is expected until
the center crosses the coast.  Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall in Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches are possible across the Mexican states of
Tabasco, northern Veracruz, northern Puebla, Tlaxacala, Hidalgo,
Queretar and eastern San Luis Potosi in eastern Mexico.  These rains
will be capable of producing life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within
the Hurricane Warning area tonight.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the southern shore of the Bay of
Campeche through tonight.  Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in eastern Mexico by
this evening.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the
immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall in the Hurricane Warning area.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

67



In this thread:

Franklin becomes the first hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season - Chris in Tampa, 8/9/2017, 5:15 pm

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