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Re: ENSO-neutral conditions are predicted for the upcoming peak months (August-October) of the Atlan

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/10/2017, 5:01 pm

I don't know a great place to look for year to year anomalies.

The only product I can think of at the moment is:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Looking at:
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) 0-24h
Or:
850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) 24-48h
And then under Anomaly column.

So:

850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) 0-24h:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_aVSHD_024.gif

Or:

850-200 hPa Vertical Shear (kt) 24-48h:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_aVSHD_048.gif

1 m/s = 1.94384 knot = 2.23694 mph

Then at the bottom of the page there are regionally specific charts. Look for the "850-200 hPa Vertical Shear" column. Then look across for what region you want to view shear for. Blue line is current, black line is climatology.

The colored subbasin image above those charts tells you where each region is.

Info about that product:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/description.html

For current shear in case you want that...

Current wind shear:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

And how shear has changed over past 24 hours:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

1 knot = 1.15 mph

For individual storms you can use the SHIPS text output for a particular storm every 6 hours, looking at bottom of this folder:
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/
It will tell you what the shear if forecast to be along one particular model's forecast track.

I don't know how well these products do. Sometimes it has seemed like the CIMSS product has had the shear wrong.

The climatological charts show shear up and down depending on when you look. I guess several of the charts show either below normal to near average shear in the past few months. Carib seems to be more around average though.

81



In this thread:

Forecasters are now predicting a higher likelihood of an above-normal season - Spin_Doctor, 8/9/2017, 1:37 pm

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