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Since Franklin didn't survive across Mexico as identifiable cyclone, would get new storm name

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/11/2017, 9:38 pm

From Bob Henson's blog:

"Since Franklin did not survive the crossing of Mexico as an identifiable tropical cyclone, the new storm would get a new Eastern Pacific name. The next named storm in the list is Jova."

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/invest-99l-may-develop-not-threat-land

90% chance of development from what was somewhat associated with Franklin. East Pacific outlook:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5

---

Meanwhile, blog also goes into 99L. At 8pm this evening, 99L's chances are back up to 60% within 5 days. I say back up because it's been so long I forget it has been this high before.

5 day chances for 99L when it was 60% or above...

August 3th at 8am... 60%
August 3th at 2pm... 70%
August 3th at 8pm... 80%
August 4th at 2am... 80%
August 4th at 8am... 80%
August 4th at 2pm... 80%
August 4th at 8pm... 80%
August 5th at 2am... 80%
August 5th at 8am... 70%

August 11th at 8pm... 60%

Atlantic outlook:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5



At the moment, models take it between U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. NHC potential formation area on outlook seems to show the same thing.

Global models:

ECMWF:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_uv850

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Since Franklin didn't survive across Mexico as identifiable cyclone, would get new storm name - Chris in Tampa, 8/11/2017, 9:38 pm

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