| "Although not explicitly forecast below, we are anticipating Harvey being a hurricane at landfall after the 48 hour forecast point." Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151548.shtml?cone#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/09L_floater.html Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html Just an FYI, my site is down. The model and recon systems went down when my site was moved to a new server and technical support at my web hosting provider will need to investigate. The first person didn't know what was wrong and they told me to email technical support for another person to look into it. You can get the data at HurricaneCity. http://hurricanecity.com/recon/ http://hurricanecity.com/models/ Tropical Depression Harvey Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 ...HARVEY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 92.5W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Mansfield to High Island. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from north of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield and from north of San Luis Pass to High Island. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of Mexico from Boca De Catan to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Boca De Catan Mexico to Port Mansfield Texas * North of San Luis Pass to High Island A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system for possible watches this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Harvey was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 92.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a track toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, Harvey should be approaching the Texas coast late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a hurricane on Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast and southwest Louisiana through next Tuesday, with heavy rainfall beginning as early as Friday morning. Harvey is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 9 inches in portions of south, central, and northeast Texas and the rest of the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey could cause life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Mansfield to High Island...4 to 6 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas, Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017 Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that Harvey has regenerated in the Bay of Campeche, with a closed circulation noted and a central pressure of about 1006 mb. The initial wind speed is 30 kt based on SFMR data from the aircraft. Harvey is not well organized at the moment, with an asymmetric cloud pattern and a large radius of maximum wind. The environment, however, is conducive for intensification while Harvey moves over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters in light-to-moderate shear. The biggest hindrance to intensification in the short term is the poor structure. Thus the NHC forecast will only show a gradual increase in wind speed during the first day, with a more significant intensification after that time. Although not explicitly forecast below, we are anticipating Harvey being a hurricane at landfall after the 48 hour forecast point. This forecast agrees well with the guidance, almost all of which shows a quickly intensifying cyclone approaching the Texas coast. Since the center has just recently formed, the initial motion is difficult to estimate, but the long-term motion is 310/8. Harvey is expected to move more slowly toward the northwest or north- northwest as it enters a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge during the next day or so. The ridge slightly strengthens by late Thursday, which should cause a faster northwestward motion by then. Around the time of landfall, however, Harvey should enter an area of weaker steering currents near the upper Texas coast as high pressure rebuilds over the southwestern United States. The storm should slow down markedly over southeast Texas, and there is considerable uncertainty on exactly how fast Harvey moves out of that state ahead of the next mid-latitude trough. For now the NHC forecast will just drift Harvey generally toward the east at days 4 and 5, on the slow side of the model consensus. Hopefully later G-IV flights and special soundings over the southern United States will help clarify the long range forecast. Key Messages: 1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards to portions of the Texas coast beginning on Friday. 2. Several days of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of eastern Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday through early next week. This rainfall could cause life- threatening flooding. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office (www.weather.gov) and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center (www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov) for more information on the flooding hazard. 3. The National Weather Service has issued a Storm Surge Watch from Port Mansfield to High Island, Texas. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. 4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map will also be available on the NHC website by 1200 PM CDT. Remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch area. 5. Hurricane conditions are possible along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 21.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 22.3N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 23.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 25.2N 94.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 26.7N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 29.0N 97.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1200Z 29.8N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 30.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake |