The rainfall record should be a record for the entire US for a landfalling tropical cyclone. NHC retweeted that tweet: Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?cone#contents Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 ...RELENTLESS TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE, AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 94.3W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Morgan City Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from east of Morgan City to Grand Isle Louisiana. The Tropical Storm Warning from Port O'Connor to Mesquite Bay has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Port O'Connor to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Port Bolivar to Morgan City Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding continues in southeastern Texas and portions of southwestern Louisiana. Please see warnings and other products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 94.3 West. Harvey is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general north-northeast track is expected today and tomorrow. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is expected to be just offshore of the middle and upper coasts of Texas through tonight, then move inland over the northwestern Gulf coast early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected before the center moves inland. A gradual weakening should begin thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches through Friday over parts of the upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding over large portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS. Please see warnings and products issued by your local National Weather Service office for additional information on this life-threatening situation. Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across portions of southern Louisiana into coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Rainfall associated with Harvey will spread north by mid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches spreading into portions of Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley. A preliminary report from one Texas rain gauge has broken the Texas tropical cyclone rainfall record. Southeast of Houston, Mary's Creek at Winding Road reported 49.32 inches as of 9 am CDT. This total is higher than the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical cyclone Amelia of 1978 at Medina, Texas. A list of rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the warning area along the coast and are likely to persist during the next day or so. Tropical storms conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 24 hours. SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are still affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today from extreme southeast Texas across parts of southern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and coastal Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017 1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Heavy rains continue to spread over the Houston area and other locations in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana, exacerbating what is already a catastrophic flood event. Rainfall totals of nearly 50 inches have been observed at several locations in the Greater Houston area and southeastern Texas. Storm totals could reach higher amounts in some locations, which would be historic for the area. Harvey consists of a vigorous circulation of low clouds with some patches of deep convection well to the north of the center and a cyclonically curved convective band in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is kept at 40 kt until we have a more recent estimate when the reconnaissance plane checks the area this afternoon. Strong shear prevails over the cyclone, so no significant change in intensity is anticipated before landfall. A gradual weakening is forecast once the circulation moves inland. The circulation is moving toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 4 kt. Harvey is expected to be steered to the northeast with an increase in forward speed by the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a trough. Most of the guidance is consistent with this solution, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope. Given that the guidance is tightly clustered the confidence in the track forecast is high. Key Messages: 1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue across southeastern Texas. Additional rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana, with isolated storm totals as high as 50 inches. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html 2. The flood threat has spread farther east into Louisiana. Additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southern Louisiana into coastal Mississippi and Alabama. Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 28.4N 94.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 28.8N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 29.8N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0000Z 30.8N 92.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z 32.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/1200Z 34.5N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 02/1200Z 36.5N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/1200Z 38.5N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila Some other rainfall records in US: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/record_precip/record_precip_us.html That comes in part from Christopher Burt. From his book here: https://books.google.com/books?id=SV229set7RIC&pg=PA116&lpg=PA116 This about Smethport, PA if you're curious: http://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/articles:10574 Saw that from here: https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/902351104800940032 |