Re: New GFS and Euro have a complete SoFla Storm
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/5/2017, 2:57 am
Well I'm off to bed. These were not the runs I was hoping for after the extra data from soundings and sondes. (though I don't know if the Euro gets this data)

NHC said this in 5pm EDT Monday discussion:

"Six hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the
central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude
trough.  In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling
the environment around Irma, and these data will be included in
tonight's 0000 UTC model runs."

We're getting into just about the 5 day range now for the mainland US. Models are starting to mean more, both because it's less time from when there could be impacts and the extra data they will continue to get at times each day. The Euro and GFS are in pretty good agreement for the 0Z run. (No idea if there might be Cuba interaction, not counting on that to weaken it.) Let's see if the agreement continues like this for a few runs.

GFS ensembles:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=watl&pkg=lowlocs

Canadian ensemble:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=watl&pkg=lowlocs

HWRF:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind

HMON:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=11L&pkg=mslp_wind

You can access the global models on that site too.
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When will the 00Z runs upload? - Gambit7, 9/4/2017, 9:33 pm
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