Re: What Am I Missing Here?
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/6/2017, 9:42 pm
That's the downside of looking at a line. Impacts extend well away from just the center point. For many of the models offshore, they bring dangerous conditions to a wide area of coastline.

Keep in mind the storm doesn't travel from point to point either. It may wobble or curve along the way, even if the track by a model, or even the National Hurricane Center (NHC), were to be very close to being correct.

Also, the cone is often misunderstood:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

"Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time."

You can see the details about that at the link above. This year's cone is based on 2012 to 2016. Obviously, storm doesn't always stay in the cone. Around a 1/3 of the time if doesn't on average over past 5 years. But also important, the cone represents just the forecast for the center point of the storm. If a storm stayed barely within the cone, for some storms you could see wind impacts a few hundred miles outside the cone if it was large.
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What Am I Missing Here? - haloeffect, 9/6/2017, 9:22 pm
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