Space Weather Prediction Center
Posted by
cypresstx on 9/7/2017, 9:40 am
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
saw this today & thought it "might" be relevant, if anyone experiences data interruption: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/forecast-discussion
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Sep 07 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels. Region 2673 (S09W51, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X9/3n flare at 06/1202 UTC and an M7 at 07/1015 UTC. Further imagery is needed to determine if there was a CME associated with the M7 event.
Available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery confirms a CME was associated with this X9 flare and likely has an Earth-directed component. Forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling determined the CME would arrive at the near-Earth environment late on 8 Sep.
Region 2674 (N14W34, Fki/beta) remained mostly inactive for the period despite its continued potential. The remaining regions were stable and inactive as well.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (07-09 Sep), with a chance for very high levels, due to the flare potential and recent history of Region 2673. Radio blackouts reaching the R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the next three days (07-09 Sep), with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 7,220 pfu observed at 06/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels with a peak flux of 104 pfu at 06/0125 UTC.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels on day one (07 Sep) due to the anticipated arrival of the 04 Sep CME. On days two and three (08-09 Sep) 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase back to high levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) levels on day one (07 Sep) and into the first part of day two (08 Sep). There remains a slight chance 10 MeV proton flux will be above the S1 threshold into day three (09 Sep).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was at near background levels through the first half of the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from 470 km/s to around 430 km/s, total magnetic field strength was generally less than 5 nT, and the Bz component was variable between +/- 3 nT. The phi angle was predominately positive early in the day, then began to trend towards a negative solar sector through the remainder of the day. At approximately 06/2308 UTC, an interplanetary shock was observed at the DSCOVR spacecraft, signalling the likely arrival of the 4 Sep CME. Wind speeds increased sharply from near 450 km/s to just over 600 km/s, with total field strength increasing from 4 nT to 16 nT.
.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced for the next two days (07-08 Sep) due to anticipated effects from the 04 CME. There is a chance the environment will remain enhanced into day three (09 Sep) with the possible arrival of the 6 Sep CME late on 08 Sep/early on 09 Sep, and possible interaction with a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influences from the 4 Sep CME.
.Forecast...
G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are likely for the next three days (07-09 Sep) as a result of an inbound CME from 04 Sep, followed by the arrival of the CME associated with the X9 flare, mid-to-late on day two (08 Sep).
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