Re: NHC Discussion & Track
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/8/2017, 1:22 am
I guess I want to remind people that they should focus on the cone rather than the exact forecast track.

Below are the Friday 0Z early cycle and Thursday 18Z late cycle models. Also included are the Thursday runs of the 12Z Euro, and ensemble, the 12Z Canadian, and ensemble, and 12Z UKMET. The white line is the NHC track at 11pm AST Thursday. The cone is drawn with a blue line for that 11pm track.



I wish the NHC would have talked about not focusing on the exact forecast track again. The storm is unlikely to travel from point to point, even if the forecast points along the track are exactly correct. It's more likely to curve between points as it makes turns.

For the first 48 hours, the NHC has a forecast point every 12 hours. After that, the forecast points are 24 hours apart. That's how it is always done. When the points are that far apart, and the storm might be turning, the lines between points can be misleading. This is why people should focus more on the cone. (About the cone.)

Here's that same image without the track line:

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11pm is out - Shalista, 9/7/2017, 11:01 pm
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