Re: Models have been driving me nuts.....
Posted by beachman80 on 9/9/2017, 11:14 am
1) Looks like wind shear very light from Cuba up to Fort Myers area so there is a window of strengthening for sure. Once it passes that latitude it's going to either weaken (if it's onshore) or stay at same strength (if it's still in Gulf).

2) Some storms are just flat out much easier to predict than others. Based on what I've heard from meteorologists, this has been a difficult one to forecast mainly because of predicting how strong HPs will be and how far troughs would dig down and the effect each of those had on the other. I've heard several experts say Katia ended up playing a role in this track moving further west.

I think the Euro and UKMET really shined in the forecasting, assuming there aren't many changes from here on out. The Euro did shift East for a short time on Tuesday but then came right back to the west by Wednesday. It has always had this thing knocking on Cuba's door, even in it, and going more westerly with the track.
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Cuba Appears To Have Annihilated Irma's Core - CX, 9/9/2017, 5:11 am
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