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Hurricane Severity Impact (HSI) Scale by Impact Weather

Posted by cypresstx on 9/14/2017, 4:02 pm

this is where Derek Ortt works, would love to hear his opinion on this, a must-follow:

Chris Hebert posts on our local weather board, but I truthfully have not paid much attn to their HSI scale, not sure why, just haven't

NPR did a story on Harvey & their HSI scale

I don't see how this could hurt, the current cone is more akin to a football/baseball stat than a warning tool.  The public needs to realize what their actual danger is & not just what the odds of the forecast track beeing off are, based on PAST data

In fact, during a discussion at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando this morning, a panel that included National Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb, questioned whether the storm forecast cone is obsolete.

The cone only deals with location, without consideration of forecast uncertainty, storm surge concerns or wind speed probabilities.
The path of Tropical Storm Erika had most of the state in its cone at one point, but never made it past Hispaniola.

The path of Tropical Storm Erika had most of the state in its cone at one point, but never made it past Hispaniola.

"I've had a long-standing problem with the cone and believe it has outlived its benefits," said Craig Setzer, a chief meteorologist for WFOR-TV in Miami and a panel member. "That was evident with Erika and Joaquin when people saw the cone five days out and believed the hurricane would be approaching the coast in that time frame."

There's no reason it can't keep the current wind category designation, just add something that's more useful in determining risk/harm


In this thread:

"It's Time for a 21st Century Hurricane Scale" - I so agree with him on this ! - cypresstx, 9/14/2017, 2:29 am

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