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5pm AST Thurs on Jose: Life-threatening rip currents possible along parts of U.S. East Coast

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/14/2017, 4:53 pm

This has been added to the public advisory:

"Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system."

I would add, eventually, Canada too.

NHC discussion says:

"It should be noted there is a fair bit of spread in the global models and their ensembles, which does not give me a lot of confidence in the long-term track forecast."





Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/12L_floater.html
Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html







Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST FROM JOSE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 67.3W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jose was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 67.3 West. Jose is
moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn
to the northwest on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some restrengthening is forecast to begin on Friday, and
Jose will likely become a hurricane again by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the Southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake







Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

The cloud pattern of Jose has become more symmetric this afternoon,
with the apparent center perhaps a little more centered in the
central dense overcast.  Dvorak intensity estimates, however, are
unchanged from six hours ago, so the initial wind speed remains 60
kt. Visible imagery suggest some drier air has become entrained into
the circulation of the storm, with outflow boundaries noted in the
northern semicircle.  This dry air should gradually mix out while
Jose remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear
conditions.  This environment favors some strengthening over the
next few days, and the official forecast reflects this idea, lying
between the model consensus and the global models.  In the longer
term, shear is forecast to increase and water temperatures should
moderate.  Therefore, some weakening is probable at days 4 and 5,
and that is reflected in the official forecast.

Jose continues to move west-northwestward, now at about 7 kt.  The
storm should turn northwestward by Saturday and northward by early
Monday while it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic
Ocean.  Model guidance, however, is not in good agreement on the
strength of that ridge, leading to some significant model
differences on this cycle.  The leftmost global model is the UKMET,
which moves Jose significantly farther westward than the other
guidance in the short term, leading to a closer pass of Jose to
the Outer Banks.  However, most of the rest of the guidance show the
northward turn starting earlier, leading to a more offshore track.
Given the UKMET's recent westward bias, the new NHC forecast will
put more weight on the GFS/ECMWF solutions, leading to very little
change to the previous track.  It should be noted there is a fair
bit of spread in the global models and their ensembles, which does
not give me a lot of confidence in the long-term track forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.

2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions
of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward
to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts
might be or where they could occur.  Interests along U.S. east coast
from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the
progress of Jose during the next several days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 25.2N  67.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  15/0600Z 25.6N  68.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  15/1800Z 26.5N  70.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  16/0600Z 27.5N  71.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  16/1800Z 28.6N  72.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  17/1800Z 30.7N  72.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  18/1800Z 33.5N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 36.5N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake






Models:
http://hurricanecity.com/models/models.cgi?basin=al&year=2017&storm=12&display=google_map&latestrun=1

Global models:

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=mslp_uv850

76



In this thread:

5pm AST Thurs on Jose: Life-threatening rip currents possible along parts of U.S. East Coast - Chris in Tampa, 9/14/2017, 4:53 pm

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