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Re: Hurricane Severity Impact (HSI) Scale by Impact Weather

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/14/2017, 5:34 pm

I wish there was some kind of scale, or scales, that were made available by the NHC as an addendum, in real time. Meteorologists could help explain it. A simple scale would be nice too for the public to see too. You would always have the wind scale, but if there was a disparity between wind and other threats, like surge or even rain, you could try to highlight the additional scale(s) and compare it to previous storms. If you say this is about the same or worse than a particular storm, having a metric backing you up would be nice.

I'm not sure about the cone. Having uncertainty for a specific storm, such as based on the models, might be too confusing to implement. Which models too?

A 5 year average where 2/3rds of the time the center point would stay in the cone seems okay if people communicate what the cone represents, including that it doesn't tell you anything about the size of the storm, such as impacts felt well outside the cone. (About cone: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml ) If you made the cone larger to take into account the wind field of the storm, as the default, it might get more confusing. I suppose you could have a second version, but then if it wasn't very different graphically, people might get really confused, especially when third parties displayed it.

The NHC's cone for Jose:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents

It has the wind field. If someone explains it well, such as if the center point were along the edge of the cone the impacts would be felt well outside the cone, it might work already. But you have to make sure to emphasize that it's not guaranteed to stay in the cone too. It's nice if you're not in the cone, but I've seen some meteorologists point out when a location is no longer in the cone, just barely outside it.

The cone is a more complicated issue, but I think other scales for threats other than wind wouldn't be problematic to start having.

63



In this thread:

"It's Time for a 21st Century Hurricane Scale" - I so agree with him on this ! - cypresstx, 9/14/2017, 2:29 am

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