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11pm AST Thursday: Invest 97L has become Tropical Depression Fourteen in Eastern Atlantic

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/14/2017, 11:19 pm

Invest 96L is the one nearest to the Antilles. This is the one closer to Africa.

Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/?cone#contents

Satellite:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al142017







Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

Convection associated with an area of low pressure over the far
eastern Atlantic has become much better organized during the past 12
hours, with an increase in banding over the western portion of the
circulation.  A Dvorak classification of 2.0 from TAFB suggests that
the intensity is around 30 kt.  The system is currently embedded
within an area of light to moderate easterly shear.  This should not
prevent the system from gradually strengthening while it moves over
warm water during the next couple of days.  After that time, a mid-
to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause
an increase in southwesterly shear, which could become quite strong
by days 4 and 5.  As a result, weakening is expected late in the
forest period.  The NHC intensity forecast is between the higher
statistical guidance and the lower dynamical models.

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 285/19 kt. A high
pressure ridge currently over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to
weaken as the aforementioned trough develops over the central
Atlantic by early next week.  This should cause a significant
reduction in the forward speed of the depression over the weekend.
There is some spread in the track guidance later in the period, with
the GFS taking a stronger cyclone more northward, while the EC takes
a weaker system more westward.  The NHC track is between these
solutions and is close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 10.7N  25.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 11.2N  27.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 11.5N  29.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 11.5N  30.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  17/0000Z 11.5N  31.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  18/0000Z 11.8N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  19/0000Z 12.8N  38.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 14.4N  43.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown






Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 25.4W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Fourteen was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 25.4 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35
km/h).  A slower westward motion is forecast to begin on Friday and
continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

140



In this thread:

11pm AST Thursday: Invest 97L has become Tropical Depression Fourteen in Eastern Atlantic - Chris in Tampa, 9/14/2017, 11:19 pm

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