| http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/12L_floater.html Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html Hurricane Jose Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 ...JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 70.3W ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for a portion of the coast of North Carolina on Saturday. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected today, follow by a turn to the north-northwest by late Saturday and toward the north on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Saturday, with weakening possibly beginning on late Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure as estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that Jose has become a hurricane again, with a blend of the flight-level data and SFMR values giving an initial intensity of 65 kt. Further strengthening is possible over the next day or two while the hurricane remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear. By Sunday, southwesterly shear is forecast to increase, along with a gradual cooling of the SSTs. These conditions should promote some weakening of Jose, although all of the guidance are showing a fairly large hurricane for the next several days. The official forecast is close to the previous one for the first couple of days, then is blended downward to the latest model consensus. Jose continues moving northwestward, now at about 9 kt. The hurricane should turn north-northwestward tomorrow and northward by Sunday while it is steered around a western Atlantic ridge. Jose is then forecast to turn north-northeastward by Wednesday as it moves along the northwestern side of that ridge. The model guidance is in relatively good agreement on the forecast track, but the ECMWF is slower than the rest of the guidance. With the UKMET and its ensemble speeding up from 6 hours ago, the official forecast is nudged toward the model consensus at long range, but is still on the slow side, resulting in little overall change to the previous forecast. It is still important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively. While most of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore for the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude and location. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 27.1N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 28.8N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 29.9N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 31.4N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 33.9N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 36.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 40.0N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |