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5pm EDT Friday: Jose a hurricane again. Tropical storm watches possible in US on Saturday

Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/15/2017, 5:01 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/?cone#contents

Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/12L_floater.html
Wider Atlantic views: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html










Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

...JOSE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES POSSIBLE IN THE UNITED STATES ON
SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 70.3W
ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests from North Carolina northward to New England on the east
coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this
system.  A Tropical Storm Watch may be needed for a portion of the
coast of North Carolina on Saturday.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 70.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  This general motion is
expected today, follow by a turn to the north-northwest by late
Saturday and toward the north on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast through
Saturday, with weakening possibly beginning on late Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The minimum central pressure as estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the
Mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  For more information, please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake






Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Air Force reconnaissance data indicate that Jose has become a
hurricane again, with a blend of the flight-level data and SFMR
values giving an initial intensity of 65 kt.  Further strengthening
is possible over the next day or two while the hurricane remains
over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear.  By Sunday,
southwesterly shear is forecast to increase, along with a gradual
cooling of the SSTs.  These conditions should promote some
weakening of Jose, although all of the guidance are showing a
fairly large hurricane for the next several days.  The official
forecast is close to the previous one for the first couple of days,
then is blended downward to the latest model consensus.

Jose continues moving northwestward, now at about 9 kt.  The
hurricane should turn north-northwestward tomorrow and northward by
Sunday while it is steered around a western Atlantic ridge.  Jose is
then forecast to turn north-northeastward by Wednesday as it moves
along the northwestern side of that ridge.  The model guidance is in
relatively good agreement on the forecast track, but the ECMWF is
slower than the rest of the guidance.  With the UKMET and its
ensemble speeding up from 6 hours ago, the official forecast is
nudged toward the model consensus at long range, but is still on the
slow side, resulting in little overall change to the previous
forecast.  It is still important to note that the average NHC track
errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.

While most of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore for the
next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming
rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North
Carolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed
for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast
coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the
mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the
next few days.  These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and
rip current conditions.


2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the
North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are
expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the
North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday.  Farther north along the U.S.
east coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is
increasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude
and location.  Interests along the U.S. east coast from North
Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through
the weekend.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 27.1N  70.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  16/0600Z 27.8N  71.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  16/1800Z 28.8N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  17/0600Z 29.9N  72.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  17/1800Z 31.4N  72.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  18/1800Z 33.9N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  19/1800Z 36.7N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 40.0N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

156



In this thread:

5pm EDT Friday: Jose a hurricane again. Tropical storm watches possible in US on Saturday - Chris in Tampa, 9/15/2017, 5:01 pm

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